The Milwaukee Brewers have stormed into Wrigley Field with a chance to finish what they started. Up 2–0 in the NLDS, they’ve silenced the Chicago Cubs’ bats and turned this series into a showcase of pitching depth and timely hitting. But with the Cubs back home and Jameson Taillon taking the ball, there’s still plenty of fight left on the North Side. Wednesday night’s matchup isn’t just about survival for Chicago it’s about pride, momentum, and keeping their October dreams alive. For bettors, it’s a fascinating spot: a desperate home favorite versus a road team playing its best baseball of the year.

Probable pitchers & paths

Brewers: RHP Quinn Priester (13–3, 3.32)
Milwaukee played a little gamesmanship in Game 2, warming Priester alongside opener Aaron Ashby before saving him for Game 3. Beyond the decoy, Priester’s trendline is the real story: the Brewers won 19 straight games he appeared in from May 30 to Sept. 18 before dropping his final regular-season start. Expect bulk innings with a quick hook if traffic piles up — Pat Murphy has his leverage trio (Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Jared Koenig) fresh after a bullpen win Monday that didn’t overtax anyone.

Cubs: RHP Jameson Taillon (11–7, 3.68)
Taillon is exactly the type you want in an elimination game: strike-thrower, calm tempo, and excellent recent form (1.67 ERA over his last eight outings) with strong Wrigley splits (5–2, 3.05 ERA in 10 home starts). He logged two quality starts in three tries vs. Milwaukee this year. The issue isn’t Taillon; it’s what happens if he exits down a run. Chicago’s bullpen has been shakier than Milwaukee’s through two games, and the Cubs’ lineup has leaned on the long ball for most of its October scoring.

Recap

Milwaukee took Game 1 (9–3) and Game 2 (7–3). Rookie fireballer Jacob Misiorowski headline-grabbed in relief Monda 104.3 mph, four Ks as the Brewers’ pen combined for 7⅓ innings of one-hit ball. That’s exactly the sort of depth that travels into a road clincher. Chicago got an early Seiya Suzuki 3-run blast in Game 2, but they were otherwise muted; through two games the Cubs have six total runs.

On the health front: Milwaukee lists Jackson Chourio day-to-day after hamstring tightness in Game 1 he homered in Game 2 and is expected to go. The Brewers remain without Brandon Woodruff and Garrett Mitchell. Chicago is down ace Justin Steele (season-ending elbow) and reliever Ryan Brasier. Availability tilts slightly toward Milwaukee’s depth.

The Cubs were 50–31 at Wrigley in the regular season, and they finished 92–70 overall; markets respect that home edge and Taillon’s recent run. But the Brewers’ road mark (45–36) matched up just fine, and their lineup headlined by Christian Yelich and William Contreras has been putting real pressure on mistakes. If this plays to form, it’s tight into the sixth with bullpens deciding it. Milwaukee has looked more stable there.

Betting trends

Teams up 2–0 in a best-of-five have advanced 88.9% of the time; when those two wins come at home (as here), advancement jumps to 91.2%.
Regular-season context: Brewers 97–65 (45–36 away); Cubs 92–70 (50–31 home).
ATS (run line) in 2025: Brewers 88–74 overall (48–33 away); Cubs 78–84 overall (39–42 home).
O/U profile: Brewers 77–80–5; Cubs 74–78–10 (Cubs 40–36–5 to the Over at home).
Priester angle: Milwaukee won 19 straight games he appeared in from late May through mid-September; he finished 13–3, 3.32.
Taillon angle: 1.67 ERA across his last eight outings; 5–2, 3.05 ERA at home; two quality starts in three vs. MIL.
Series scoring: Brewers 16, Cubs 6 through two games; Milwaukee’s bullpen has allowed one hit over 7⅓ IP in Game 2.
Market check: best current prices sit around CHC -120/MIL +100 (total 6.5–7). Hunt for +105 or better on the Brewers and a flat 7 on the total if you can.

Matchup keys

Contact vs. chase
Chicago’s lineup can get punch-out heavy against righties in October a lot of their runs this postseason have come via homers. If Priester’s sinker/slider mix keeps the ball on the ground and the wind isn’t helping fly balls, the Cubs’ offense may feel thinner inning to inning.
Bullpen leverage
Milwaukee’s high-octane trio has shorter rest requirements and looked fresh. If this is a 2–2 game in the seventh, the Brewers’ leverage arms have been the more reliable route to clean frames.
Star bats who matter most
Christian Yelich (29 HR, 103 RBI) and William Contreras have been the heartbeat; Michael Busch (34 HR) and Seiya Suzuki carry Chicago’s thump. If Taillon navigates Yelich’s lefty damage and keeps Contreras in the yard, Chicago’s path improves but Milwaukee has more ways to manufacture a run late.

The pick

Brewers moneyline (+100 or better).

This is less about fading Taillon and more about trusting Milwaukee’s full-game shape: a live starter, the fresher leverage pen, and a lineup that’s already solved multiple Cubs looks in this series. With the total sitting between 6.5 and 7, this projects as a tight, lower-scoring game in cool conditions; Milwaukee has shown it can string together enough quality plate appearances to scratch two or three against the starter and then squeeze the rest. I’d play the Brewers at +100 or better; if they slip to a small favorite, the edge thins but isn’t gone. Lean Under 7 at a flat -110 or better; pass if your only option is 6.5.