Tigers vs Twins June 29: Odds, Pitching Matchup & Picks

It’s not just another Sunday night in Detroit—it’s a rubber match with more bite than expected. After the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers split the first two games of their series at Comerica Park, tonight’s finale is shaping up to be a clash between one team trying to stay relevant and another trying to prove it belongs among the league’s elite.

The Tigers, sitting pretty with a 52–32 record, are one of the American League’s most consistent and profitable teams for bettors in 2025. The Twins, meanwhile, are scratching at .500 (40–43) and still searching for the rhythm that made them playoff threats just a few seasons ago.

With Chris Paddack on the mound for Minnesota and Tarik Skubal toeing the rubber for Detroit, oddsmakers and fans are all-in for a pitcher’s duel or at least something close. Let’s break down the trends, the numbers, and what bettors should be watching.

Recent Head-to-Heads

The Twins snagged Game 1 with a tidy 4–1 win, only to get bulldozed by the Tigers 10–5 in Game 2. It’s been a bit of a back-and-forth affair, and each game has leaned differently on totals: one hit the under, the other blew past it. It’s also worth noting Minnesota has gone 2–2 in its last four against Detroit—a far cry from dominance but enough to raise a skeptical brow if you’re laying big money on the Tigers to sweep every time.

Records & Betting Profiles

Minnesota Twins:

SU Record: 40–43
ATS Record: 45–37
Recent Form: Just 3–7 ATS in their last 10, but 2–2 ATS in their last 4
Moneyline as Underdog: 2–5 when +116 or longer
Over/Under: Mixed; frequent overs in losses, but recent unders cropping up

Minnesota is better ATS than you’d expect—covering in tighter games even when they lose outright. But their value as outright underdogs is sketchy. The offense can vanish without warning, and the bullpen has been suspect in key late innings.

Detroit Tigers:

SU Record: 52–32
ATS Record: 45–37
Home Record as Favorite: 29–14, winning 9 of last 11 as home favorite
Moneyline ROI as Favorite: Strong; winning 66% when favored
Over/Under: Slight lean toward the over (41–37 on overs)

This Detroit team is for real. Not only do they win at home, but they often cover the run line too—especially when Tarik Skubal is on the mound. Bettors backing the Tigers as home favorites have been smiling at their bankrolls all season.

Pitching Matchup: Skubal vs. Paddack

Tarik Skubal (LHP, Tigers)

Record: 9–2
ERA: 2.29 (7th in MLB)
WHIP: 0.87 (1st in MLB)
Strikeouts: 125 in 102 IP
Recent Form: Undefeated in last 13 starts; 1.58 ERA over that span
Arsenal: Fastball averaging 97.7 mph, elevated changeup usage

Skubal has been lights-out. In fact, he’s been the sun. Opponents can’t touch him lately—Detroit has won 11 of his last 13 starts. He misses bats, limits walks, and throws strikes. His 0.87 WHIP suggests he’s not just surviving he’s dominating. Against a strikeout-prone Minnesota lineup, the lefty might feast.

Chris Paddack (RHP, Twins)

Record: 3–6
ERA: 4.64
WHIP: 1.23
Strikeouts: 60 in 85.1 IP
Recent Form: 3.32 ERA over last 4 starts, with improving command
Weakness: Subpar K-rate (~6.3 K/9); vulnerable to long innings

Paddack has looked sharper in recent weeks, but the raw numbers still tell a cautious tale. He doesn’t miss many bats and struggles to dominate lineups the second time through the order. Against a patient Tigers offense that makes pitchers work, he’ll need to thread a very thin needle to keep his team competitive.

Betting Odds & Market Movement

Moneyline: Tigers -290 to -311, Twins +235 to +244
Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (-126 to -132), Twins +1.5 (even money or better)
Total (O/U): 7.0 to 7.5, with action leaning toward the under

The Tigers are one of the heaviest favorites on the board this week, and for good reason. Skubal has made Detroit nearly invincible every fifth day, and oddsmakers aren’t expecting tonight to buck that trend. The run line has leaned Detroit, but there’s enough sharp money on the under to make totals bettors hesitate.

Betting Angles

Detroit:

When Skubal starts, Detroit is 11–2. He’s covered the -1.5 in 8 of those.
Opponents are hitting just .192 against him.
The bullpen has been tighter in home games posting a 2.91 ERA over the last 30 innings pitched.

Minnesota:

Twins are 5–10 SU in games where Paddack starts.
They’re 2–8 as road underdogs when line opens longer than +200.
Offense is streaky; in their last 7 losses, they’ve averaged 2.4 runs per game.

Betting Recommendation

PICK: Tigers -1.5 Run Line

Yes, laying -1.5 isn’t ideal, but Detroit has been covering it regularly behind Skubal. Paddack’s inconsistency plus the Tigers’ top-tier home form makes the run line a smarter play than the moneyline juice.

Lean: Under 7.5

This game leans under unless the Tigers hang a crooked number early. Skubal should keep the Twins off-balance, and Paddack has just enough in the tank to limit Detroit to 3–4 runs max.

Prop Watch:

Skubal Strikeouts Over 6.5 – He’s cleared that mark in 10 of last 13
Twins Under 2.5 Runs (Team Total) – Value bet if you expect Skubal dominance

Final Thoughts

This isn’t a playoff game. But it feels like one. The Tigers are asserting themselves as contenders, and Skubal is barreling into Cy Young conversations. The Twins? They’re just trying to stay afloat, patch holes, and win a few coin flips on the road.

Betting-wise, Detroit is the complete package tonight: ace pitcher, home field, motivated bats, and a soft opponent. Unless you’re holding out hope for a fluky Twins breakout, the smart money rides with Motown.