New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – April 01, 2026
Jake Thompson
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New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Info
| Matchup | New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals |
| Date | April 01, 2026 |
| Time | 1:15PM ET |
| Location | Busch Stadium (St. Louis, MO) |
| How to Watch | Cardinals.TV (in-market) / MLB.TV (out-of-market) |
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Odds
| Market | New York Mets | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -164 | +138 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+102) | +1.5 (-122) |
| Total (7.5) | Over 7.5 (-122) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
Starting Pitcher Stats
| Pitcher | Hand | 2026 W-L | 2026 IP | 2026 ERA | H | ER | BB | K | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta (NYM) | R | 1-0 | 5.0 | 7.20 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
| Matthew Liberatore (STL) | L | 0-0 | 5.0 | 1.80 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Recent Form & Pitching Notes
Mets (3-2): Lost their most recent game 3-0 at St. Louis on March 31, 2026. Kodai Senga went 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 9 K (92 pitches) and still took the L. New York’s offense managed just 3 hits (Juan Soto 2-for-4) and didn’t cash four walks. Bullpen usage was light: Richard Lovelady covered the final 2.0 innings (2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR).
Cardinals (3-2): Won 3-0 vs the Mets on March 31, 2026. Andre Pallante set the tone with 5.0 shutout innings (3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K; 88 pitches). St. Louis used a clean, scripted bullpen bridge: Graceffo 1.0, Stanek 1.0, Romero 1.0, O’Brien 1.0 for the save. Offensively it was enough: Iván Herrera drove in two and Ramón Urías homered.
Peralta context: His Mets debut (March 26 vs PIT) was loud contact despite the win: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 2 HR (80 pitches). Mets covered behind him with Tobias Myers for 3.0 innings, then Luis Garcia.
Liberatore context: In his season-opening start (March 26 vs TB), Liberatore went 5.0 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HR (78 pitches). The bigger note is what happened after: St. Louis needed 4.0 innings from the pen in a 9-7 game that featured heavy traffic and leverage.
Betting Trends
- Mets: 3-2 SU this season
- Mets: 1-4 O/U this season
- Mets: 3-2 ATS (run line) this season
- Cardinals: 3-2 SU this season
- Cardinals: 3-2 O/U this season
- Cardinals: 3-2 ATS (run line) this season
- Last two games in this series (Mar 30 & Mar 31): both went Under the closing total
Breakdown
The market is still pricing the Mets like a clean pitching edge, but Peralta’s first look in a Mets uniform came with two homers allowed and a 7.20 ERA after five innings. If he’s living in the zone again, this number is vulnerable because St. Louis doesn’t need a monster night to threaten a low total like 7.5.
Liberatore’s opener was fine on the scoreboard (1 ER in 5), but it was also seven hits and not much swing-and-miss. The difference here is price: St. Louis is at home getting +138 with a starter who at least kept the ball in the yard outside of one swing, while the Mets are laying a tax with a starter who already showed HR risk.
Total is shaded to the Over at 7.5 (-122), but the series has played tight and New York just got blanked. If this stays a one-run game into the middle innings, the plus-money Under has a real path.
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet
Cardinals Moneyline +138 (3 out of 5 units)
Peralta’s debut volatility (2 HR allowed in 5.0 IP) doesn’t match a -164 price tag in a day game on the road. Liberatore is steady enough to keep St. Louis live, and the home dog number is the side with cushion if this is another tight, low-scoring script.
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of St. Louis Cardinals 4, New York Mets 3.