Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction & Odds (July 2, 2025)

Will Warren vs. José Berríos | 7:07 p.m. ET @ Rogers Centre

Byline: Baseball in July always hits different, doesn’t it? Especially when it’s two heavyweights clawing for AL East dominance. The New York Yankees roll into Rogers Centre tonight holding a razor-thin one-game lead over the surging Toronto Blue Jays, and both teams know the stakes. It’s not just about today’s win it’s about postseason posture, clubhouse rhythm, and betting markets buzzing with questions.

This isn’t a sleepy summer series. It’s a potential tone-setter heading into the second half of the season. And with young fireballer Will Warren facing veteran anchor José Berríos, there’s plenty for bettors to unpack line movement, pitching matchups, trend reversals, and maybe a few fireworks waiting to burst.

Let’s break this one down.

Current Records & Standings

Yankees: 48–37 (1st in AL East)
Blue Jays: 47–38 (2nd in AL East, 1 GB)

After back-to-back wins against New York, Toronto has closed the gap. A win today means a tie atop the division. And momentum? Squarely on the Jays’ side.

Recent Matchup Recap

Game 1 (June 30):

Blue Jays 5, Yankees 4

Late-inning pressure and shaky Yankee defense opened the door. Guerrero Jr. drove in 3 clutch RBIs.

Game 2 (July 1):

Blue Jays 12, Yankees 5

An outright thumping, headlined by George Springer’s 7 RBIs and grand slam. The Jays teed off on Max Fried early and never looked back.

That makes 2 straight wins for Toronto in this series and 6 wins in their last 10 against New York.

Betting Odds & Market Movement

Bet Type	Yankees	Blue Jays
Moneyline	–126 to –131	+108 to +109
Run Line	–1.5 (+122)	+1.5 (–146)
Over/Under	9 runs (–110 both sides)

Market lean: Slight edge to Yankees, especially among casual bettors. But the Blue Jays have been hot both ATS and on the moneyline as dogs, keeping sharp money interested.

Team Betting Profiles

Yankees (Betting Stats)

Moneyline Record: 48–35 SU
ATS: 39–46 (–6.9% ROI)
O/U: 31–49
Unders hitting: ~61%

Recent trends:

Lost 3 of their last 4
Covered 2 of last 3 spreads
Unders cashing at a high rate—5 of last 6 games

Narrative Summary: The Yankees have underperformed expectations recently, especially as favorites. Offense tends to dry up just as the bullpen gets exposed. Unders have been the more dependable play across the board.

Blue Jays (Betting Stats)

Moneyline: 27–24 as underdogs
ATS: 51–34 (60% cover rate!)
O/U: 47–37–1
Overs hitting: ~57%

Recent trends:

6–1 ATS last 7
4–1 SU last 5
Overs hitting in 5 of last 7
At Rogers Centre: 25 of 42 home games hit the over

Narrative Summary: Toronto is peaking at the right time. They’re outperforming the lines—especially as dogs—and making bettors money in multiple directions. The run line has been gold lately, while high-scoring games keep pushing totals north.

Pitching Matchup

Will Warren (NYY) – RHP

2025 Stats: 5–4, 4.37 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 103 K, 80.1 IP
Strengths:
- High strikeout upside (11.6 K/9)
- Capable of dominant starts when command is sharp
Weaknesses:
- Inconsistent; ERA varies start to start
- High WHIP points to traffic on base and pressure situations
- Prone to giving up multi-run innings when rattled

Pitcher Preview: Warren can light up the radar gun and fool hitters—but his control can vanish like a magician’s coin. When he’s locked in, he looks elite. When he’s not, the wheels fall off fast.

José Berríos (TOR) – RHP

2025 Stats: 4–3, 3.26 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 89 K, 102 IP
Recent Form: 2.05 ERA in last 7 starts, 0.91 WHIP over that stretch
Strengths:
- Limits baserunners, especially recently
- Keeps games within reach; rarely implodes
- Strong at home
Weaknesses:
- High hard-hit rate (40%+)
- Barrel% nearing 10.5 when he’s off, he gets hit

Pitcher Preview: Berríos is a rhythm guy. Once he locks in, he’s hard to break. While he doesn’t rack up massive K totals, he keeps hitters off balance and pounds the zone. A safe bet for 6 solid innings most nights.

Head-to-Head Betting Trends

Blue Jays are 6–4 in last 10 vs. Yankees
Toronto has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings
Last 4 meetings: 3 Overs, 1 Under
At Rogers Centre: Blue Jays have won 4 of the last 6 home games vs. NYY

Prediction & Recommended Bets

Game Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Yankees 4

This matchup checks all the boxes for a classic Blue Jays home value play:

Momentum is in Toronto’s corner.
Pitching edge goes to Berríos especially at home, where he’s settled in.
Betting trends all tilt toward the Jays, particularly on the run line and over.
And Warren, while electric, hasn’t shown the command needed to shut down this red-hot lineup.

Best Bets:

Blue Jays ML (+108)
- The value is there, especially with Toronto excelling as a home dog.
Over 9 Total Runs (–110)
- With two shaky bullpens and hot bats, this number feels a bit light.
Blue Jays +1.5 Run Line (–146)
- For more conservative bettors, this provides strong protection.
George Springer to Record an RBI (Prop)
- With 7 RBIs yesterday, he’s white hot.