New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Odds & Prediction – July 23, 2025

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays meet tonight, July 23, 2025, at Rogers Centre in Toronto. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 PM ET. The Yankees enter at 56‑45, three games behind the Blue Jays, who lead the AL East at 59‑42. This marks the sixth meeting of the season between the two clubs; Toronto leads the series 4–1. The Blue Jays have won four of five, but the Yankees snapped their losing streak in Toronto last night with a 5–4 win.

On the mound, the Yankees start left-hander Max Fried (11–3, 2.43 ERA), while the Blue Jays counter with right-hander Chris Bassitt (10–4, 3.89 ERA). New York is a slight road favorite, with betting markets listing them around –140 on the moneyline. The game total is set at 8.5 runs.

Below, we break down the current form, relevant betting trends, pitching matchup details, and where the value lies for this critical divisional matchup.

Head-to-Head

As of July 23, 2025, the Yankees and Blue Jays have faced each other six times this season. Toronto has won five of those six games. The Blue Jays took the first five matchups—four of them at home—before the Yankees finally broke through with a 5–4 win in their most recent meeting. Four of Toronto’s wins have been by multiple runs, with only last night’s contest decided by a single run. This clear trend points to Toronto’s consistent edge in the season series to date and should be factored into run line and moneyline evaluations for tonight’s game.

Market Odds

• Moneyline: Yankees –142 to –138, Blue Jays +115 to +120.
  Books are shading New York as the favorite, largely because Fried is on the mound and the metrics say they’ve underperformed.
• Run line: Yankees –1.5 (+118), Blue Jays +1.5 (–142).
• Total: O/U 8.5, slight lean to the Under based on recent game totals and starting pitching profiles.

The odds are mostly in line with what we’d expect given team form and pitcher strength. Yankees moneyline is slightly juiced, but with their “bad luck” record and Fried’s profile, it’s justified. Toronto as a home dog is rare—worth noting for value seekers.

Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs. Chris Bassitt

Max Fried (Yankees, LHP):

• 11–3, 2.43 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 113 Ks in 20 starts.
• Elite control, only 27 walks, high K rate (8.3/9 IP).
• Minimal home run problem (9 in 122 IP).
• Only concern: a recent blister that’s led to past IL stints. He’s an ace, but if that flares up, you’ll want to watch the live line.

Chris Bassitt (Blue Jays, RHP):

• 10–4, 3.89 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 109 Ks in 21 starts.
• Strong at home, reliable with quality starts, usually limits the damage.
• Slightly elevated WHIP and ERA; can be susceptible to big innings—one recent blowup (8 runs vs. Boston).
• Good K/BB ratio, but the floor is lower than Fried’s.

Recent Betting Results & Trends

Yankees:

• Last 10 games: 3–3 as moneyline favorites, 5–5 ATS, 5 Overs.
• Season-to-date: 54–45 moneyline, 47–54 ATS, underwhelming as favorites (given their underlying stats), but with value when lined as a ‘dog (7/12 RL wins, 58%).
• Recent results are mixed. They went 2–3 over their last five, splitting ATS and Over/Unders.

Blue Jays:

• Last 10 games: 6–3 as moneyline favorites, 4–6 ATS, 3 Overs (trend is under).
• Season-to-date: 59–41 moneyline (+15 units), 60–39 ATS (+18 units), slight lean to Overs overall but recent games mostly going under.
• Especially strong at home and following a win (35–23 ATS in that scenario).

Totals (O/U):

• Toronto: 52–45 O/U on the year (+2.85 units Over), but only three Overs in their last ten.
• Yankees: Last five games split O/U, showing no consistent pattern.

Best Bet and Prediction

Best Bet: Blue Jays +1.5 on the run line. Toronto has covered the run line in over 60% of games this season and rarely loses by multiple runs at home.

Prediction: Expect a tight, low-scoring game with both aces on the mound. Under 8.5 is a strong play, especially if the bullpens hold up. If Fried’s blister is a non-issue, Yankees have the pitching edge, but the value remains with Toronto on the run line.

Player Prop: Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases and Fried over his strikeout line are both worth targeting.

Monitor Fried’s pregame health. If there’s an issue, live betting Toronto offers additional value. Final call: Blue Jays +1.5 and Under 8.5.