San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Game 1 Prediction, Odds & Betting Preview (Sept. 30, 2025)

The series opens at Wrigley Field with the Cubs hosting after finishing 92–70, while San Diego rolls in at 90–72 on the heels of a statement sweep to end the regular season. MLB lists the Game 1 slot at 3:08 p.m. ET on ABC, and Chicago earned the home series by locking up the top wild-card seed this weekend.

Probable Pitchers

San Diego is handing the ball to Nick Pivetta (13–5, 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). He’s been the Padres’ steadiest arm, and his swing-and-miss profile (190 K this year) travels well. Pivetta’s postseason exposure is limited but positive from 2021, and he’s been nails down the stretch.

Chicago has not formally named its Game 1 starter as of Monday, but MLB’s game FAQ points to two lefties: All-Star Matthew Boyd (14–8, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) or Shota Imanaga (9–8, 3.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). Boyd’s results dipped a bit late, and Imanaga’s main blemish has been the long ball. Either way, the matchup leans toward a high-strikeout, low-traffic game early the kind that rewards whichever lineup runs into a mistake first.

Team Details

The Cubs just swept the Cardinals to finish 92–70, and they’ve found power in bunches. Michael Busch led the club with 34 homers and a .866 OPS, Seiya Suzuki closed with his 32nd homer and 103 RBI, and Pete Crow-Armstrong hit the 30–30 milestone first in franchise history with 30 HR and 30 SB. Oh, and Chicago reactivated Kyle Tucker (calf) late last week; he DH’d on return and finished his debut Cubs season with an .841 OPS. That’s a lot of thump for a team that also went 50–31 at home.

San Diego’s form is terrific. The Padres completed a sweep of Arizona on Sunday behind long balls from Manny Machado (27th) and a big day from Jackson Merrill. They’ve split the season series with the Cubs 3–3, and the run tally is dead even (25–25). Fernando Tatis Jr. posted an .814 OPS with 25 HR this year, Machado finished with 27 HR and 95 RBI, Luis Arraez hit .292 as the table-setter, and Merrill added 16 HR with a .774 OPS as a rookie CF. It’s a deeper lineup than it sometimes gets credit for, and it’s healthy enough for October baseball.

Bullpens

MLB’s preview notes San Diego’s “super-bullpen” look after adding Mason Miller, with Robert Suarez closing and Miller used in the highest-leverage slot pre-ninth. The Cubs have mixed-and-matched late; Daniel Palencia is back from a shoulder issue, but Craig Counsell has leaned on a committee in September. In a coin-flip game, those details matter especially in a low-walk, day-game environment.

Weather

The forecast calls for a mild afternoon mid-70s and mostly sunny with a light to moderate NE breeze (around 5–10 mph) in Chicago. That’s not the classic 20-mph “Wrigley wind” setting that blows totals up or down on its own, but a light NE flow tends to keep the ballpark neutral-to-slightly pitcher friendly. If you’re eyeing totals, this leans toward caution on early overs.

The market right now

Online Sportsbooks are hanging a tight number: Bookmaker shows Cubs -118 / Padres -102 as of Monday morning. MyBookie has gone a touch higher on Chicago at -123, with San Diego +101.

Matchups

Home vs. road: Cubs were 50–31 at Wrigley; Padres were 38–43 on the road. Home-field is real here.
Head-to-head: Split 3–3, runs 25–25 no built-in edge from prior meetings..
Starting pitching: Pivetta’s 2.87 ERA/0.99 WHIP and 190 K is a true Game 1 ace profile. Chicago’s choice (Boyd or Imanaga) is solid, but neither offers quite the same strikeout-plus-run-suppression combo in 2025.
Impact bats: Chicago’s top four (Busch, Tucker, Suzuki, Crow-Armstrong) carry real slug, but San Diego’s Machado/Tatis/Arraez/Merrill core matched that production most nights in September.
Bullpen trust: Edge Padres. The Miller–Suarez path is clearly mapped; the Cubs’ ninth is more committee than certainty.
Momentum: Cubs enter off a sweep of St. Louis; Padres just swept Arizona and have won consistently for two weeks. Call it a wash both are hot.
Weather: Daytime, modest NE wind; no strong weather-based edge to either offense.

Betting trends

Cubs as home favorite (season): 63.8% win rate as a home favorite (best-in-class territory).
Cubs when favored overall: 71–40 when listed as a moneyline favorite.
Padres as underdog: 34–68? Not quite San Diego is 34 wins in 68 tries as a dog (50%). That’s better than most “good team as dog” profiles.
Recent SU/ATS blurbs: Sites show both clubs 4–1 SU in their last five, and San Diego 7–1 in its last eight overall.
Season series: Even 3–3, 25–25 runs no hidden domination.
Cubs home record: 50–31 at Wrigley.
Padres road record: 38–43 away from Petco.

The handicap

On pure pitching, San Diego has the cleaner edge if it’s Pivetta vs. a TBD lefty. Pivetta’s command plus two breaking pitches has played against both R/L hitters this year, and Chicago’s power can be neutralized in a day game if the breeze knocks a couple warning-track shots down. If the Cubs choose Boyd, it becomes a tighter call; if it’s Imanaga, the K/BB profile is elite but his HR rate can bite him against a top-third lineup with Tatis and Machado. Add in that the Padres’ late innings are mapped (Miller high leverage, Suarez ninth), while the Cubs may spread the final six outs across two or three arms. In a 7th–9th-inning coin flip, I prefer the more defined bullpen plan.

The pushback, obviously: Chicago’s 50 home wins matter, and that lineup is deep. Busch has been a problem for righties, Suzuki’s on a heater, and Crow-Armstrong’s speed/power combo creates extra run-scoring paths without stringing hits. Kyle Tucker’s status as a recent IL return is encouraging; even at DH, his plate skills help lengthen the order. If you like the Cubs, you’re essentially betting the environment (home/day game), the lineup’s power depth, and Counsell’s tactical edge.

Padres vs Cubs Pick

Padres moneyline (play it at +100 or better).

At near-even money, the starting pitching and bullpen edges tilt this toward San Diego, even against Chicago’s excellent home profile. If the Cubs announce Boyd, I still make Pivetta a small favorite head-to-head. If it’s Imanaga, I reduce stake size a touch due to his elite WHIP but the HR tendency keeps the Padres live at plus money. I’m passing on the total until a firm number and wind angle are posted across books; with a light NE wind and two quality starters, I’d only consider an Under if the market floats to 8.5.