San Francisco Giants vs Athletics Betting Prediction & Analysis: July 6, 2025

The July 6, 2025 game between the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland Athletics features a near-even moneyline, with the Athletics priced at –114 and the Giants at –105 ahead of tonight’s first pitch in Sacramento. San Francisco sends right-hander Hayden Birdsong (4.30 ERA) to the mound against Athletics’ left-hander Jacob Lopez (3.88 ERA), setting up a tightly matched contest both on the field and at the sportsbooks.

This betting prediction covers all key data points, including current odds, team trends, pitching analysis, and recent performance. Whether you’re interested in the moneyline, run line, or totals, this breakdown is designed to provide actionable insights and help bettors make informed decisions for the series finale.

Series Recap

Let’s start with the here and now. This series has been as tightly contested as you’d expect. The A’s snatched Game 1 in front of a rowdy Sutter Health Park crowd, but the Giants roared back in Game 2 behind Logan Webb’s bulldog outing and a big night from Willy Adames (three hits, four RBIs, and a reminder he can carry the Giants for stretches). That leaves both squads 1–1 in this series and the stage set for a true rubber match.

The Giants have looked a bit more dangerous at the plate lately, tallying seven runs in back-to-back games a welcome change after a streak of punchless nights earlier this week. Athletics, meanwhile, still leans on scrappy at-bats and the occasional power surge but can run cold quickly.

Current Standings & Season Overview

San Francisco Giants

Record: 48–42 (23–25 on the road)
Recent Form: 3–2 over the last five
ATS (Against the Spread) this season: 41–49 (45.5%)
Moneyline as Underdogs: 15–13 (53.6%)
Over/Under: Slight lean to the under (45 unders, 41 overs)

Athletics

Record: 37–54 (16–28 at home in Sacramento for now)
Recent Form: 3–2 over the last five
ATS: 44–47 (48.9%)
Moneyline: 37–54 overall, only moderate value as big dogs
Over/Under: Strong lean to the over (48 overs, 38 unders, 5 pushes)

The Giants have generally been more reliable this year, especially when they’re tagged as underdogs, where they’ve quietly outperformed expectations. The A’s, for their part, have been classic spoilers rarely favored but occasionally busting tickets with a sneaky hot night at the plate.

Betting Odds & Market Analysis

Tonight’s moneyline, as of this writing, has the A’s ever-so-slight favorites at –114, with the Giants close behind at –105. That suggests a near 53–54% probability for the Athletics, which is… not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it’s enough to keep both fanbases on edge.

Spread: Giants –1.5 (+145) / A’s +1.5 (–165)
Over/Under: 10–10.5 runs (books are wary of fireworks, but recent form hints at runs)
Moneyline: Athletics –114 / Giants –105

The over/under is especially interesting. Athletics games have skewed high-scoring (the “over” is cashing more than half the time), but the Giants tend to tamp down totals with a pitching staff that—while not dominant—knows how to keep games within reach. There’s no clear “public side” on this one, so you’re unlikely to get much help from the crowd’s wisdom.

Pitching Matchup: Birdsong vs. Lopez

Hayden Birdsong (Giants, RHP)

Birdsong, a rookie right-hander, is as electric as he is unpredictable. On the year:

ERA: 4.30
WHIP: 1.40
Strikeouts: 62 (9.2 K/9)
Recent trend: Control issues, walking too many and pushing his WHIP to 1.68 in his last five starts
Advanced stats: Batters’ average exit velocity of 89.8 mph, barrel rate close to 10%, and wOBA allowed of .331

Strengths: Birdsong can rack up strikeouts sometimes in bunches and is the kind of arm who can look dominant for three innings, then suddenly lose the zone.

Weaknesses: When he’s off, he’s off. Walks pile up, pitch counts soar, and he’s prone to the big inning. Opponents have slugged some long balls against him, and he’s especially vulnerable if he’s asked to face a lineup a third time.

Jacob Lopez (A’s, LHP)

Lopez, a 26-year-old lefty, doesn’t wow you with velocity but gets results:

ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.34
Strikeouts: 56 (10.9 K/9, excellent for a soft-tossing lefty)
Advanced metrics: Hard-hit rate just 34%, barrel rate 5.6%, low groundball rate (lots of fly balls)
Fastball velocity: A modest 89.9 mph—among the lowest for MLB starters

Strengths: Elite strikeout numbers and the ability to minimize barrels. His soft stuff keeps hitters guessing, and he’s thrived against teams that can’t adjust to his tempo.

Weaknesses: The low groundball rate means a lot of balls in the air never ideal in a hitter’s park, and even riskier against a righty-heavy lineup like San Francisco’s. He’s also never been favored as a starter until tonight, which adds some psychological intrigue.

Betting Trends & Takeaways

Giants’ Betting Patterns

They’re a surprisingly good moneyline bet as underdogs, going 15–13 (winning 54%).
At home, their spread (run line) record is a rough 17–22—Oracle isn’t the fortress you’d think.
The under has a slight edge, especially in games with lower-tier pitching matchups.

Athletics’ Betting Patterns

A’s are almost exactly 50/50 ATS consistent mediocrity, in the nicest sense.
They’re one of the league’s best “over” teams, with 48 games going above the total.
Their moneyline performance is rocky, but they’ve kept games close, especially as big underdogs.

Prediction: Who’s Got the Edge?

The market says Athletics by a nose, and the stats back it up just barely. Lopez has been more reliable than Birdsong, and the A’s offense is streaky enough to put up crooked numbers against a wild righty. Plus, Lopez’s 6–2 ATS record as a starter is hard to ignore, and this is the first time he’s been asked to win outright as a favorite.

Best Bet: Athletics Moneyline (-114)

If you’re playing this one straight, the smart money is on the A’s at –114. The odds suggest a roughly 53% chance of cashing not huge value, but with Lopez pitching well and Birdsong showing late-season fatigue, it’s the play with the most statistical backing.

Additional Plays:

Leaning “over” 10 runs is supported by Athletics season-long trends (and Birdsong’s volatility).
Player props: Consider Lopez over on strikeouts, or Adames total bases for the Giants.

Prediction: Athletics 6, Giants 5