Seattle leads the series 1–0 after a 3–1 win Sunday night at Rogers Centre. Cal Raleigh went deep and the Mariners’ bullpen slammed the door, flipping home-field after George Springer’s first-pitch leadoff blast jolted Game 1.

Game & pitching matchup

Time/TV: 5:03 p.m. ET, Rogers Centre (FOX/FS1). Probables: RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs RHP Trey Yesavage (TOR).

Toronto turns to 22-year-old rookie Trey Yesavage, whose splitter was devastating in his postseason debut: 11 K over 5⅓ hitless innings against the Yankees, a franchise record for playoff strikeouts in a game. His late-season rise was meteoric (debuted Sept. 15; 3 regular-season starts). The arsenal note that matters for bettors: a high-slot fastball/splitter combo that tunnels well and misses bats.

Seattle counters with Logan Gilbert, who’s been nails this postseason (1.13 ERA) and is also leaning on a top-tier splitter. One caveat: after starting in the ALDS, he threw 34 high-stress relief pitches in that 15-inning clincher, so the leash and stamina bear watching in Game 2 especially with Tuesday’s off day inviting aggressive bullpen usage.

Odds

Lines vary by offshore sportsbook, but the market consensus leans Toronto:
• Moneyline: Blue Jays -140 ; Mariners +120
• Run line: TOR -1.5 around +150.
• Total: 7.5 (Over ~-105, Under ~-115)

Matchup breakdown

Why Toronto can even it:

K ceiling with Yesavage. The rookie’s splitter produced 11 Ks vs. New York and is a problem for a Mariners lineup with several slug-forward profiles (Raleigh, Naylor, Suárez) that can swing through late tumble. If he lands first-pitch strikes, Seattle’s chase rate can climb, particularly in-count splitters below the zone.
Home environment. Toronto’s 54–27 home record lines up with a tangible batting-order bump (Springer/Guerrero Jr./Barger/Varsho) and a crowd that trends run-positive early Game 1’s first pitch was proof of concept.
Bullpen depth and rest. With an off day Tuesday and a relatively fresh group after Game 1, Schneider can play the matchups behind the rookie Jeff Hoffman, swingman Chris Bassitt, and others are available for multi-pocket coverage.

Why Seattle can steal another:

Gilbert’s October form. He’s sitting on a 1.13 postseason ERA, and his own splitter has held opponents to a .158 average/.200 SLG, per MLB.com. If he carries 5–6 efficient frames, Seattle’s back-end (Brash/Muñoz) is positioned to reprise Game 1.
Top-end thump traveling. Raleigh homered Sunday and Julio Rodríguez/Polanco can punish splitters that leak arm-side. Seattle already showed it can score enough in this building.
Pen usage edge from Game 1. Eight-pitch stints preserved bullets for leverage pockets today.

Player notes & props

• Trey Yesavage K’s: Books will likely hang a mid-5s to 6.5 number. Given the Yankees outing and Seattle’s swing profiles, an Over lean on Ks is defensible tempered by rookie variance and quick hook risk in October.
• Cal Raleigh RBI/HR: He’s the hot hand after Game 1; if you prefer player props to sides/totals, a small sprinkle on Raleigh HR at plus money is sensible against a rookie who will challenge with splitters in two-strike counts.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TBs: Toronto’s heart of the order was quiet after the first inning Sunday; Guerrero has been one of their best postseason sticks and benefits from home-park carry. Consider VGJ over 1.5 TBs at plus money if posted.

Handicap & pick

From a pure numbers stance, home edge + rookie strikeout ceiling + bounce-back urgency points to Toronto. The Jays’ dominant home record (54–27) is not noise and matches how this park plays with their lineup construction. Yesavage’s ability to miss bats with the splitter profiles well against Seattle’s middle order, and Schneider can be hyper-proactive with the bullpen knowing an off day looms. On the other side, Gilbert is excellent right now but is coming off a relief cameo in that 15-inning ALDS clincher, which could trim his cap at ~18–20 high-leverage batters before Seattle’s pen enters the equation. In a game likely decided by one crooked inning or a single mistake splitter, I trust Toronto’s contact quality at home to find that crack.

Best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (play to -150). Secondary lean: Under 7.5 – Expect a tighter, lower-variance script than a typical Rogers Centre over two elite splitters tend to erase big innings, and both managers will go to their leverage arms quickly.

Projected score: Blue Jays 4, Mariners 2.