Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction (June 12, 2025) – Odds, Picks & Pitching Matchup

When the St. Louis Cardinals take the field against the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday, June 12, 2025, it won’t just be another date on the calendar it’s a pivotal checkpoint in a fiercely competitive NL Central race. With both clubs hovering around the .500 mark and just a five games back of division-leading Chicago, this clash carries weight well beyond the nightly box score.

The Cardinals arrive in Milwaukee licking their wounds from a four-game skid, most recently swept by Toronto, and searching for something anything to ignite their once-promising momentum. At 36–32, they still sit second in the division, but the gap is closing fast, and the pressure’s building. Fortunately, they’re handing the ball to their most reliable starter this season, Sonny Gray, who’s been nothing short of a rock. With a 7–1 record and a tidy 3.35 ERA, Gray’s recent outings have been masterclasses in poise and execution, giving St. Louis fans a reason to believe.

On the flip side, the Brewers (36–33) are quietly hanging around, winning just enough to stay in the thick of things. And tonight, they’re rolling the dice on raw upside. Enter Jacob Misiorowski, the 6-foot-7 fireballer making his MLB debut. He’s been electric in Triple-A, sporting a sub-2.20 ERA and striking out batters at a rate that turns heads. But the majors are a different beast, and Milwaukee will be hoping the moment doesn’t outshine the man.

With the betting markets giving a slight edge to the Cardinals and the over/under hinting at a tightly contested, moderately scoring game, the stage is set for an intriguing mix of experience vs. potential.

Pitching Matchup

Sonny Gray (STL):
- Record: 7–1 | ERA: 3.35 | WHIP: 1.13
- One of the most reliable arms in the league this year. Gray has rattled off four straight quality starts and is boasting a top-25 K rate. He’s limiting damage, averaging just over one baserunner per inning.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL):
- MLB Debut | Triple-A ERA: 2.13 | WHIP: 1.09
- Misiorowski’s making his big-league debut tonight, and the buzz is real. The 6’7” flamethrower features a fastball that’s flirted with 103 mph, backed by an impressive K/9 of 11.4 in Triple-A. But this is his first dance in the majors and with that comes a whole new level of pressure.

Betting Odds

Moneyline:
- Cardinals: –128 (implied ~56–58%)
- Brewers: +110 (implied ~47%)
Run Line:
- STL –1.5 (+134), MIL +1.5 (–162)
Total (O/U):
- 7.5 Runs — Over (–118), Under (–104)

Betting Trends & Market Analysis

Cardinals Trends:
- ATS: 22–12 over last 34 games
- Moneyline: 15–15 as favorites this year
- Over: 37–29–2 overall; trending high-scoring, especially at home
Brewers Trends:
- ATS: 5–5 in last 10
- Moneyline: 4–1 as underdogs in their last 5
- Over/Under: 39–25 to the Under in last 64 games

Key Insights

The Cardinals win 58% of Gray’s starts this year and are 9–4 ATS in those games.
The Brewers thrive on surprise—they’ve been profitable underdogs this season and are 4–1 in recent dog spots.
The total (7.5) has value on both ends: Gray could silence Milwaukee’s bats, but Misiorowski’s debut could spiral if nerves or control issues creep in.

Best Bets & Predictions

Best Bet: Cardinals Moneyline (–128)

St. Louis has the edge in experience, and Sonny Gray’s consistency against a rookie making his debut feels like the safer path. The Cards are hungry to break their losing streak, and they’ve typically responded well behind Gray’s arm.

Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (–118)

While the Brewers tend to favor the under, the combination of St. Louis’ offensive ceiling and the volatility of Misiorowski’s first MLB appearance adds upside for runs. If either starter cracks early, this game could open up.

Final Prediction:

Cardinals 5, Brewers 3
Expect St. Louis to capitalize on the matchup edge, with Gray taming Milwaukee’s bats and the offense doing just enough to cash both the moneyline and total.