Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – April 01, 2026
Ryan Rozycki
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Info
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers |
| Date | April 1, 2026 |
| Time | 1:40PM ET |
| Location | American Family Field (Milwaukee, WI) |
| How to Watch | Brewers.TV, Rays.TV, MLB.TV |
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds
odds via Bookmaker Sportsbook
| Moneyline | Rays +120 | Brewers -142 |
| Run Line | Rays +1.5 (-192) | Brewers -1.5 (+158) |
| Total (7.0) | Over 7.0 (-105) | Under 7.0 (-115) |
Starting Pitcher Stats
| Pitcher | 2026 W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K | Last Start (Date/Opp) | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen (TB) | 0-0 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 5.0 | 2 | Mar 26 @ STL | 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R (1 ER), 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 73 pitches |
| Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) | 1-0 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 5.0 | 11 | Mar 26 vs CHW | 5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R (1 ER), 1 HR, 3 BB, 11 K, 94 pitches |
Recent Form & Pitching Notes
Rays (2-3) — Most recent game: L 6-2 at Milwaukee on March 31. Shane McClanahan went 4.2 IP (2 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) and held Milwaukee hitless through 4.1 before the fifth flipped. The Rays’ bullpen took on real work: Colin Sulser 1.1 IP (4 H, 2 ER) and Yoel Gomez 2.0 IP (1 H, 1 ER). Offensively it was basically two swings (Jonathan Aranda solo HR in the 1st, Nick Fortes solo HR in the 5th); Tampa Bay finished 0-for-5 with RISP and left 7 on.
Brewers (4-1) — Most recent game: W 6-2 vs Tampa Bay on March 31. Brandon Woodruff gave them 5.0 IP (4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K) and handed it off clean. Milwaukee’s bullpen usage was tidy and effective: Jared Koenig, Grant Anderson, Abner Uribe, and Angel Zerpa each threw 1.0 scoreless inning. The offense did damage in the middle innings (Brice Turang 2-RBI single in the 5th, Gary Sanchez HR in the 6th, Blake Lockridge RBI double in the 6th, Jake Bauers HR in the 8th) and also drew 5 walks.
Pitching setup today: both starters are working on regular rest off their only 2026 outing. Rasmussen’s opener was efficient (73 pitches) but light on Ks; Misiorowski’s opener was electric (11 Ks) but came with three walks and he only covered five innings.
Betting Trends
- Rays: 2-3 SU (2026)
- Rays: 4-1 O/U (2026)
- Rays: 2-3 ATS (2026)
- Brewers: 4-1 SU (2026)
- Brewers: 4-1 ATS (2026)
- Brewers: 3-2 O/U (2026)
- Head-to-head this series: Rays won 3-2 (Mar 30), Brewers won 6-2 (Mar 31)
Breakdown
The total is the story at 7.0, and it’s not an accident the market slid down off 7.5. Rasmussen is coming in as the “contact manager” type (0 BB, 73 pitches in his opener), while Misiorowski is the pure ceiling arm (11 Ks in five) but he’s not built out yet to be a 100+ pitch, 7-inning guy every time.
That pushes a lot of this handicap into bullpens. Milwaukee’s pen is in better shape for a day game after getting four clean one-inning stints last night. Tampa’s pen already had to cover 3.1 last game, and if Rasmussen is capped around 75–85 pitches again, the Rays are right back into the middle reliever lanes.
Milwaukee at -142 is priced like the better team at home with the higher-upside starter, which is fine. The cleaner angle is still the under: if Misiorowski avoids free passes, Tampa’s scoring paths narrow quickly, and 7 gives you room for a 4-2 or 3-3 type script.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet
Under 7.0 (-115) (3 out of 5 units)
Both starters opened the season allowing 1 ER in 5.0 IP, and this number has already been bet down. Misiorowski’s strikeout profile plus Milwaukee’s rested bullpen sets up well to keep Tampa’s scoring contained; Rasmussen is efficient enough to get through the first turn or two without the game immediately breaking.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Milwaukee Brewers 4, Tampa Bay Rays 2.
