A trip to the World Series is starting to feel real in Seattle. Up 2–0 in the ALCS, the Mariners head home to T-Mobile Park for Game 3 against the Blue Jays tonight at 8:08 p.m. ET on FS1. Expect a loud building and real urgency from Toronto.

Matchup

• Probables: Shane Bieber (TOR) vs. George Kirby (SEA). Bieber posted a 3.57 ERA in the regular season but was knocked around in his ALDS start; Kirby finished with a 4.21 ERA and was sharp his last postseason outing.
• Series state: Seattle leads 2–0 after a 10–3 win in Game 2 and now gets three straight at home, if needed.
• Odds: Mariners around -135ML, Blue Jays +115, total 7 (Over ~-104/Under ~-116)
• Broadcast/weather: First pitch 8:08 p.m. ET (5:08 PT) on FS1; cool mid-50s in Seattle

Game preview

The ALCS flips to Seattle with the Mariners holding all the leverage and, maybe more importantly for bettors, most of the market respect. At roughly -135, books are pricing this close to a 57% win probability for Seattle before vigorish aggressive, but not outrageous given the setting and the way the first two games tilted. Toronto’s path is straightforward: survive early, push Kirby’s pitch count, and let their middle of the order (Vladdy Jr., Springer) swing at something besides premium counts. Seattle’s job is the mirror image get Kirby in plus counts and keep Julio Rodríguez and Jorge Polanco hot. The first inning or two will tell you if the under has a chance to land; if Bieber’s command looks crisp, the live total could sag quickly.

Pitching: Bieber vs. Kirby. Bieber’s profile this season (3.57 ERA) still plays velocity a tick down from peak Cy days, but he can sequence and land the breaker. The worry is recent form: he lasted fewer than three innings in the ALDS against the Yankees, giving up three (two earned). That’s not a death sentence, but it hints at command being a touch off. In a loud road park, that’s a thin margin. Kirby’s baseline (4.21 ERA) doesn’t scream ace, yet he looked composed in his last postseason start (1 ER in 5 IP) and he lives in the zone. When Kirby’s ahead, he’s a quick-outs machine; when he’s behind, the ball can be lifted. Toronto’s lineup, missing Bo Bichette, loses a tough two-strike bat who punishes mistakes. That nudges the starting-pitching matchup toward slightly Seattle for me.

Offense and form. Seattle’s lineup has been opportunistic and powerful Game 2’s 10-spot wasn’t a fluke so much as the latest in a run of big swings. Jorge Polanco keeps stacking timely knocks (and homers), Julio is barreling, and Josh Naylor’s thump showed up, too. Toronto’s bats exploded in the ALDS (34 runs vs. NYY) but cooled quickly in Games 1–2 of this series; they’ve got to figure out traffic against a staff that doesn’t hand out many walks. If you’re betting props, this is where the market can lag hot Mariners hitters may still be a hair short of where they should close.

How it plays

Bieber needs that early slider feel. If he’s dotting the glove side and landing first-pitch strikes, Toronto can drag this into a bullpen game where their higher-leverage arms reset. But if he’s pitching behind, Seattle’s patient right-handers Rodríguez, Raleigh, Polanco will force him into the fat part of the zone. Kirby, at home, tends to live in the zone and trusts his defense; that profile works against contact-heavy lineups that aren’t at full strength. Without Bichette, the Jays’ margin on long strings of singles shrinks; they need a couple of extra-base hits from Vladdy/Springer to cash a plus-money ticket.

I also like the game-flow fit for Seattle’s bullpen. They’ve been getting length from the rotation and can land the leverage matchups late. Toronto’s relief corps had to wear some innings in Game 2, and while off-days help, there’s only so much rebounding you can do when the opponent is lifting the ball with authority. If the Mariners score first, the live market will swing heavily; consider pre-setting a small live position plan if you prefer even money instead of laying the chalk.

Pick & predictions

Primary pick: Mariners moneyline (-135 to -136). Pricey but justified by home field, current form of the bats, and the Bieber-without-Bichette downside if early command is shaky. I project Seattle -128 on a pure number; the qualitative edges (crowd, series leverage, lineup health) push me to accept a little tax.

Secondary leans (smaller stakes):

• Over 7 at reduced juice (only at a good price like -104). Postseason totals are fragile, so shop hard; my number is 7.2.
• Julio Rodríguez total bases Over if you see a modest number; his contact quality this series makes him a fair buy.

Projected score: Mariners 4, Blue Jays 3 – a tight game where Kirby buys Seattle five solid, the M’s pen carries it home, and one of Polanco/Julio provides the big extra-base hit.