Nationals vs Padres Prediction & Odds

Padres Look to Rebound After Stunning Loss to Nats as Rookie Ryan Bergert Faces Veteran Trevor Williams

Petco Park is set for a compelling clash tonight as the San Diego Padres host the Washington Nationals in game two of their three-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM PDT (9:40 ET), and after a surprising 10–6 defeat last night, the Padres will look to reassert control behind their rising rookie, Ryan Bergert.

Meanwhile, the Nationals—despite sitting near the bottom of the NL East with a 33–46 record—come into this matchup riding momentum and suddenly posing as a thorn in the side of sportsbooks and bettors alike. They’ve now scored 10 runs in back-to-back games against a Padres team once known for its airtight early-season pitching.

Let’s break down the matchup, odds, team trends, pitching duel, and betting markets to find the smartest play for tonight.

Team Overview & Season Trends

Washington Nationals (33–46, 4th in NL East)

ATS Record: 39–40–0
O/U Record: 37–39–3
Moneyline Underdog Performance: 29–29 (50%) as dogs
Recent Form: 3–2 SU in last 5, 2–8 in last 10
Last Game: Won 10–6 over San Diego

Despite being viewed as a rebuilding team, Washington has managed to play .500 ball as underdogs—especially when the odds swing +140 or longer. They’ve been gritty in close games and are 7–7 ATS in games started by tonight’s pitcher, Trevor Williams.

They’re not an elite team by any metric, but they do just enough to frustrate bettors who fade them by default. Their total record leans slightly under, but in recent games—particularly in this series—the over has been the stronger trend.

San Diego Padres (42–36, 3rd in NL West)

ATS Record: 42–36–0
O/U Record: 38–35–5
Home Record: 21–16
Last Game: Lost 10–6 to Washington
As Favorite: 28–23

San Diego started 2025 with a dominant seven-game win streak and was blowing teams away at home. But since mid-May, they’ve cooled off, especially when heavily favored. Still, they remain a team with a strong bullpen, solid defense, and a rising young pitcher in Ryan Bergert.

Oddsmakers still trust them, and the public largely does too—with more than 80% of moneyline bets backing the Padres tonight at books like BetMGM and FanDuel.

Betting Odds & Market Analysis

Moneyline: Padres –168 / Nationals +142
Run Line: Padres –1.5 (+126) / Nationals +1.5 (–148)
Total (O/U): 8.5 runs

The Padres are sizable favorites, with the implied probability hovering around 62.5%. Bettors expecting a tight game might lean toward Nationals +1.5 at reduced juice, given how often Washington has stayed close as an underdog.

The total of 8.5 feels modest considering last night’s 16-run explosion—and given both bullpens have shown cracks, especially if starters don’t go deep.

Pitching Matchup: Ryan Bergert vs. Trevor Williams

Ryan Bergert (Padres) – RHP, Rookie

Record: 1–0
ERA: 1.88
WHIP: 0.96
Strikeouts: 19 Ks in 24 IP
Starts: 4 (4–0 ATS in those starts)

Bergert has been a revelation since being called up. His mix of control and poise has kept hitters guessing, and his advanced metrics—low hard-hit rate (~32.8%), average exit velocity under 88 mph—point to legit skill, not luck. He’s yet to allow more than 2 runs in a start and has gone at least 5 innings in his last three outings.

Strengths: Command, consistency, weak contact, strong K/BB ratio
Weaknesses: Small MLB sample size, still untested in high-pressure spots

Trevor Williams (Nationals) – RHP, Veteran

Record: 3–8
ERA: 5.54
WHIP: 1.45
Strikeouts: 58 Ks in 74.2 IP

Williams brings experience but remains wildly inconsistent. He’s been prone to early-game damage, and his ERA hovers well above 5.00 for the season. However, he does flash strikeout upside (K-rate ~17.6%) and can navigate lineups twice through when his command is sharp.

Strengths: Strikeout potential, innings eater
Weaknesses: Control lapses, early runs, high WHIP, long-ball prone

Head-to-Head History & Trends

Last 5 Meetings (SU): Padres 4–1
Last 5 Meetings (ATS): Padres 5–0
O/U in Last 5: 3 overs, 2 unders
Last Night’s Score: Nationals 10, Padres 6

Before this series, San Diego had completely controlled the matchup, both outright and ATS. But Washington flipped the script yesterday, and their recent offensive spark (scoring 10 runs in back-to-back games) can’t be ignored.

Still, it’s worth noting that the Padres’ bullpen and defense have been generally reliable, and a bounce-back seems likely behind a poised young arm like Bergert.

Prediction & Best Bets

💵 Best Bet: Padres Moneyline (–168)

Given Bergert’s performance, San Diego’s historical dominance in this matchup, and the Nationals’ recent volatility, the straight-up win for the Padres is the safest play—even if the price is steep. Public money and projection models (e.g., NumberFire giving SD a 55.1% chance) back this position with confidence.

🔥 Over 8.5 (EVEN)

With both teams swinging the bat well, especially Washington, and Bergert still new to deep MLB starts, the over 8.5 has sneaky value. Last night’s 16-run total and both teams’ recent trend toward higher-scoring games reinforce this pick.

Final Score Prediction:

Padres 6 – Nationals 4

Look for San Diego to stabilize after last night’s collapse, but don’t expect a walk in the park. If Bergert keeps rolling, and Williams falters early (as he often does), the Padres should cover late—but Washington could easily hang close enough to cash +1.5.