Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks Game 5 Betting Preview & Prediction – April 28, 2026
Jake Thompson
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The market is pricing the Knicks as solid favorites (Knicks -6.5, -290 moneyline) with a modest total (212.5) for a playoff game that has already produced both grind-it-out finishes and two double-digit Knicks wins.
Odds as of 9:25 a.m. ET on April 27, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Matchup | Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks |
| Date / Time | April 28, 2026 (listed 8:10 p.m. ET) |
| Arena | Madison Square Garden (New York, NY) |
This table lists the current market lines.
| Market | Atlanta Hawks | New York Knicks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +235 | -290 |
| Total | O 212.5 (-110) | U 212.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
This table uses full-season numbers where available (regular season for record, ATS, O/U, and the efficiency metrics).
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 46-36 (Home 24-17, Road 22-19) | 5-5 | 44-37-0 | 40-41-0 | 113.7 | 116.1 | 101.7 |
| New York Knicks | 53-29 (Home 30-10, Road 23-19) | 7-3 | 41-39-1 | 37-44-0 | 116.5 | 113.3 | 96.8 |
Recent Form
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is 2-2 in the series, but both wins were one-point games (107-106 and 109-108). In the two Hawks losses, they scored 102 and 98, so their offensive floor has been a problem when New York is set defensively.
Through four games, Atlanta is averaging 104.0 points scored per game (416 total points) and allowing 110.3 (441 total points). That split is a big reason they are catching +6.5 even with the series tied.
New York Knicks
New York’s two wins have been decisive (113-102 in Game 1 and 114-98 in Game 4). That has mattered for spread betting: when the Knicks win, they have created separation, not just squeaked by late.
The Knicks closed the regular season with a strong home profile (30-10 overall at MSG), and they return home with two full days off since Game 4 on April 25. This is not a back-to-back setup for either side.
Matchup Keys
- Game script and margin: Knicks wins in this series have been by 11 and 16 points; Hawks wins have been by 1 and 1. That shape fits a Knicks spread more than a Hawks moneyline.
- Series scoring level: The four games have totaled 215, 213, 217, and 212 points (214.25 points per game on average), which is close to the current 212.5 total but slightly higher.
- Pace clash: New York plays slower (96.8 pace) than Atlanta (101.7). If the Knicks control tempo at home, it reduces Atlanta’s transition volume and can force more late-clock possessions.
- Defense in Knicks wins: Atlanta was held to 102 and 98 points in the two New York wins, which is the cleanest indicator of how the Knicks cover margin when their defense travels.
Betting Trends
- Knicks were 30-10 at home in the regular season.
- Hawks were 22-19 on the road in the regular season.
- Hawks were 44-37-0 against the spread in the regular season.
- Knicks were 41-39-1 against the spread in the regular season.
- Knicks regular-season totals went Under more often than Over (37-44-0 O/U).
- Hawks regular-season totals were close to even (40-41-0 O/U).
- In this series, the straight-up winner is 4-0 ATS through four games.
- In this series, 3 of 4 games finished at 215 total points or fewer.
- Entering Game 5, the Knicks are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall; the Hawks are 5-5.
Best Bet
Knicks -6.5 (-110).
New York has shown the higher ceiling for covering margin: both Knicks wins have been double-digit results, and both Hawks wins have been one-possession finishes. With the series tied and the Knicks back at MSG (30-10 home regular season), the most likely New York win condition is defensive control that pushes Atlanta closer to the 98 to 102 range we saw in Games 1 and 4. If you like Atlanta, the more logical angle is the points rather than the moneyline, because their wins have required late-game execution rather than full-game control.
Predicted Score
Knicks 109, Hawks 103
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