Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns Betting Preview & Prediction – March 05, 2026
Leo Durant
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The market is pricing a clear talent and spot edge for the home team: Suns -10.5 and -500 on the moneyline, with a 224.5 total. Odds as of 8:21 a.m. ET on March 5, 2026.
Rest and scheduling matter here. Chicago last played Tuesday (March 3) at home and now travels west, while Phoenix last played Tuesday (March 3) in Sacramento and returns home, but the Suns are also on the front end of a back-to-back (they play again Friday).
Odds & Game Info
Game time: 9:10 p.m. ET
Arena: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
Odds as of 8:21 a.m. ET on March 5, 2026.
This table shows the current market for spread, moneyline, and total.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| CHI +10.5 (-106) | PHX -10.5 (-114) | CHI +385 | PHX -500 | Over 224.5 (-114) | Under 224.5 (-106) |
Injury Updates (as of this morning)
Chicago Bulls:
- Matas Buzelis: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
- Josh Giddey: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
- Zach Collins: Out (right 1st toe surgery)
- Noa Essengue: Out (left shoulder surgery)
- Jaden Ivey: Out (left patellofemoral pain syndrome)
- Anfernee Simons: Out (left ulnar styloid fracture)
- Jalen Smith: Doubtful (right calf strain)
- Patrick Williams: Doubtful (right quadricep strain)
Phoenix Suns:
- Dillon Brooks: Out (left hand fracture)
- Jordan Goodwin: Out (left calf strain)
- Mark Williams: Out (left foot soreness)
Team Snapshot
This table summarizes current performance indicators and betting results.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 25-37 (Home 16-20, Road 9-17) | 3-7 | 27-34-1 | 29-33 | 114.8 | 118.0 | 101.61 |
| Phoenix Suns | 35-26 (Home 20-12, Road 15-14) | 4-6 | 36-22-3 | 25-36 | 115.7 | 113.4 | 98.02 |
Recent Form
Chicago Bulls
Chicago is 3-7 in its last 10 games and has averaged 113.3 points per game in that span. The Bulls are coming off a 116-108 home loss to OKC on Tuesday, but they did cover the number in that game. The scoring profile has leaned lower recently: Chicago’s last five games have all stayed under the total.
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 4-6 in its last 10, averaging 109.0 points scored and 109.4 allowed, which aligns with its slower tempo (98.02 pace). The Suns beat the Kings 114-103 in Sacramento on Tuesday, a game that also stayed under. Totals have been trending down lately as well, with four unders in Phoenix’s last five games.
Matchup Keys
- Tempo control: Phoenix plays slower (98.02 pace) while Chicago plays faster (101.61). If the Suns dictate pace, 224.5 can look high.
- Defense gap: Chicago’s defensive efficiency has been a problem (118.0 DRtg), while Phoenix is materially better on that end (113.4 DRtg).
- Shot profile from three: Both teams take a lot of threes (CHI 40.2 3PA per game, PHX 40.6), so variance can swing a big spread quickly.
- Ball security and pressure: Phoenix generates more disruption (10.0 steals per game) than Chicago (7.5), and Chicago is also the sloppier team (15.2 turnovers per game vs. 14.9 for Phoenix).
- Schedule spot: Phoenix is on the front end of a back-to-back (plays Friday), which can impact minute management if the game gets lopsided.
Betting Trends
- Phoenix is 20-12 at home; Chicago is 9-17 on the road.
- Phoenix has been one of the stronger ATS teams overall (36-22-3 ATS).
- Chicago has struggled to cover over the full season (27-34-1 ATS).
- Phoenix games have leaned under more often than over (25 overs, 36 unders).
- Chicago games have also leaned under (29 overs, 33 unders).
- Chicago is 3-7 over its last 10 games.
- Phoenix is 4-6 over its last 10 games and has played to low scoring margins (109.0 scored, 109.4 allowed in that span).
- Four of Phoenix’s last five games have gone under the total.
- Each of Chicago’s last five games has gone under the total.
Best Bet
Under 224.5 (-106). Phoenix plays at a bottom-third pace (98.02) and has been an under team on the season (36 unders in 61 games), while Chicago has also skewed under (33 unders in 62 games). Recent form supports it too: Phoenix has gone under in four of its last five, and Chicago has gone under in five straight. With Chicago carrying multiple key injuries and questionable tags, the cleanest path is a slower, less efficient Bulls offense rather than trying to thread a large spread.
Predicted Score
Suns 112, Bulls 104
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