Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick – April 25, 2026
Jake Thompson
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Denver’s season profile is still offense-first (No. 1 offensive efficiency), while Minnesota has been the steadier defensive team across the full season and has already held Denver to 114 and 96 points in the last two games.
Odds & Game Info
BetUs Odds as of 9:04 a.m. ET on April 24, 2026.
| Game Info | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Saturday, April 25, 2026 8:30 p.m. ET Target Center (Minneapolis) | DEN -1.5 (-110) MIN +1.5 (-110) | DEN -124 MIN +106 | O 229.5 (-110) U 229.5 (-110) |
Injury updates
Denver’s key absences have been in the frontcourt/wing rotation, and the league injury report for Saturday’s DEN@MIN game had not been submitted as of the most recent Friday morning update.
- Nuggets: Aaron Gordon (calf) out; Peyton Watson (hamstring) out.
- Timberwolves: team injury report not yet submitted in the latest league update (as of Friday morning).
Team Snapshot
One table to compare full-season baseline metrics and recent results.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 54-28 (26-16 road) | 8-2 | 44-38 | 51-30 | 121.2 | 116.0 | 99.5 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 49-33 (27-15 home) | 5-5 | 37-45 | 38-44 | 115.6 | 112.5 | 101.5 |
Recent Form
Denver Nuggets
Denver is 8-2 over its last 10 games, averaging 123.6 points scored and 115.7 allowed in that span. The profile is still efficient offense, but the last two games versus Minnesota are the red flag for a road favorite: 114 points in Game 2, then 96 points in Game 3 as the Wolves’ defense dictated terms.
In this series, Denver is 1-2 SU with game totals of 221, 233, and 209 (average: 221.0), meaning Denver needs either a cleaner half-court game or a better shot-making night to justify laying points again.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota is 5-5 over its last 10 games, averaging 116.8 points scored and 117.0 allowed, but the recent trend inside this matchup is stronger than the aggregate: two straight wins in the series and 113 points scored in Game 3 while holding Denver under 100.
At home this season (27-15), Minnesota has been solid straight up, and the defense has translated against Denver’s set offense when the Wolves can keep the game out of a pure shooting contest.
Matchup Keys
- Efficiency clash: Denver’s offense (121.2 ORtg, 57.7% eFG) meets a Minnesota defense that has been top-10 by season-long defensive efficiency (112.5 DRtg) and strong at limiting opponent shot efficiency (52.9% opponent eFG).
- Turnovers decide shot volume: Denver protects the ball (12.8% turnover rate), while Minnesota is a capable ball-pressure team (14.7% forced turnover rate). If Denver’s turnover rate creeps up, it cuts into the Nuggets’ half-court advantage.
- Free throws are a swing factor: Denver gets to the line at a high rate (29.4% FT rate), and Minnesota has been more foul-prone defensively (28.2% opponent FT rate). If whistles tilt toward a parade to the stripe, it pushes the game toward the over and helps Denver’s scoring stability.
- Pace control: Minnesota plays faster by baseline pace (101.5 vs. 99.5). If the Wolves can create early offense without live-ball mistakes, it increases the number of possessions against Denver’s weaker defense (116.0 DRtg).
Betting Trends
- Denver is 44-38 against the spread this season.
- Minnesota is 37-45 against the spread this season.
- Denver games have skewed over (51-30 O/U).
- Minnesota games have skewed under (38-44 O/U).
- The first three games of this series have produced totals of 221, 233, and 209 (2 unders in 3 games versus typical 230-range pricing).
- Minnesota has won the last two games in the series (119-114, 113-96).
- Denver is 26-16 on the road; Minnesota is 27-15 at home.
- Over the last 10 games, Denver is +7.9 points per game by score margin, while Minnesota is essentially even (-0.2).
Best Bet
Under 229.5 (-110).
The series has averaged 221.0 total points through three games (221, 233, 209), and Minnesota has shown it can drag Denver into longer half-court possessions and lower-scoring stretches, especially with Denver scoring 96 in the most recent meeting. Minnesota’s season-long defensive efficiency (112.5 DRtg) supports the idea that Denver does not have an automatic scoring floor in this matchup. The main risk to the under is free throws, since Denver draws them at a high rate, so this plays best if the game stays whistle-light and competitive.
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