Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Pick & Prediction – March 24, 2026

Denver comes into Phoenix as a clear road favorite, with the Nuggets laying 5.5 points and priced at -235 on the moneyline. The total is sitting in the mid-230s, which makes sense on the Denver side (elite offense, high-scoring profile), but it’s a more interesting number when you factor in Phoenix’s slower pace and season-long lean to the Under.

Odds from Bookmaker Sportsbook as of 10:27 a.m. ET on March 24, 2026.

Odds & Game Info

Team Overview

Team Recaps

Denver Nuggets

Denver’s profile is straightforward: they’re winning with shot-making and efficiency. They’re scoring 120.8 points per game with a 120.8 offensive rating, backed by 49.4% shooting and a league-best 39.2% from three. That combination travels, and it shows up in a strong 23-15 road record.

Defensively, the Nuggets have been more vulnerable than you’d expect from a top seed type, allowing 116.4 points per game with a 116.4 defensive rating. Their pace (98.7) is closer to middle than “track meet,” but their offense can push totals up anyway because of how quickly they turn possessions into clean looks. In their last game (Mar. 22), they beat Portland 128-112, and they’re 6-4 SU over the last 10.

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix has played like a team that can win ugly. The Suns are at 112.2 points per game with a 112.2 offensive rating, and they’re doing it at a slower tempo (96.5 pace). The defensive side is what’s kept them afloat: 111.0 points allowed per game and a 111.0 defensive rating, plus elite three-point defense (34.5% allowed).

They also enter with a classic “betting team” resume: 42-27-3 ATS on the season, even with a 5-5 SU mark over their last 10. Their most recent game (Mar. 22) was a 120-98 win over Toronto, and that’s the version of Phoenix that can cover as a home dog: defend the arc, keep the game in the half court, and avoid long dry spells.

Matchup Keys

• Denver’s 3-point shooting vs Phoenix’s 3-point defense: Nuggets are hitting 39.2% from three, while the Suns are allowing just 34.5%.
• Efficiency gap: Denver’s offensive rating (120.8) is elite, but Phoenix’s defensive rating (111.0) is built to drag scoring back toward average.
• Turnover pressure vs ball security: Phoenix forces 15.6 turnovers per game, but Denver only commits 12.3.
• Tempo control: Phoenix plays slower (96.5 pace). If they dictate tempo, +5.5 becomes much more live.
• Availability matters on the wings: Phoenix is already without Dillon Brooks (Out), and Grayson Allen is Questionable. That’s a real hit to two-way minutes against Denver’s perimeter shooting.

Betting Trends

• Denver is 44-28 SU this season.
• Phoenix is 40-32 SU this season.
• Denver is 40-32-0 ATS this season.
• Phoenix is 42-27-3 ATS this season.
• Denver is 23-15 on the road.
• Phoenix is 23-14 at home.
• Denver is 6-4 SU over its last 10 games (6-4 ATS in those games).
• Phoenix is 5-5 SU over its last 10 games (6-4 ATS in those games).
• Denver games are 44-28-0 to the Over this season.
• Phoenix games are 30-42-0 to the Over this season (42 Unders in 72 games).

Best Bet

Under 233.5 (-110) for 3 units.

Phoenix’s season-long scoring environment leans Under (42 Unders in 72 games), and their slower pace (96.5) helps keep opponents from turning the game into a volume-possession contest. Denver can absolutely hang 120 on anyone, but Phoenix’s biggest defensive strength lines up with Denver’s biggest offensive weapon: limiting the three (34.5% allowed). If the Suns make Denver finish more possessions with twos and keep tempo under control, 233.5 is a beatable number.

Predicted Score

Denver 118, Phoenix 112

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