Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs Prediction – March 05, 2026
Jake Thompson
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San Antonio is favored at home at -3.5 with a -154 moneyline. The Pistons are +130 on the moneyline, and the total is 228.5.
These teams saw each other recently on February 23 in Detroit, a 114-103 Spurs win, and both defenses profile well enough to keep this rematch from turning into a track meet.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 8:17 a.m. ET on March 5, 2026.
| Game Info | Details |
|---|---|
| Date | March 5, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:10 PM ET |
| Arena | Frost Bank Center (San Antonio) |
Here’s the current market snapshot for spread, moneyline, and total.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit +3.5 (-114) | San Antonio -3.5 (-106) | Detroit +130 | San Antonio -154 | Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110) |
Injury Updates (as of the 8:00 a.m. ET NBA injury report)
- Detroit: Isaac Jones (out, G League two-way), Wendell Moore Jr. (out, G League two-way), Tolu Smith (out, G League two-way).
- San Antonio: Harrison Barnes (out, left ankle soreness), Mason Plumlee (out, return-to-competition reconditioning), Harrison Ingram (out, G League two-way), David Jones Garcia (out, G League two-way), Emanuel Miller (out, G League two-way).
Team Snapshot
This table reflects each team’s current profile entering March 5.
| Team | Record (Home/Road) | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 45-15 (Road: 21-8) | 8-2 | 32-28 | 26-34 | 116.3 | 108.4 | 100.4 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 44-17 (Home: 21-6) | 9-1 | 33-24 | 24-37 | 116.9 | 110.0 | 101.0 |
Recent Form
Detroit Pistons
Detroit has been strong over the last 10 (8-2) with a 116.5 offensive rating and a 106.0 defensive rating in that span, good for a +10.5 net rating. Their schedule shows they are in the middle of a road swing, coming off a 113-109 loss at Cleveland on March 3 after beating Orlando 106-92 on March 1.
The Pistons’ identity still starts with defense and disruption: they rank No. 1 in opponent eFG% allowed (51.5%) and No. 1 in forced turnover rate (17.0%). The trade-off is foul risk, as they rank last in opponent free-throw rate allowed (32.4%), which can bail opponents out of empty possessions.
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 9-1 over its last 10 with a 120.0 offensive rating and a 105.0 defensive rating in that stretch, producing a dominant +15.0 net rating. They enter off a 131-91 win at Philadelphia on March 3 and have won 12 of their last 13 overall.
Defensively, the Spurs are built to win possession battles without giving away freebies: they rank No. 1 in opponent free-throw rate allowed (22.9%) and No. 2 in opponent offensive rebound rate allowed (28.6%). Offensively, they pair a top-10 turnover rate (13.8%) with efficient shot-making (55.2% eFG).
Matchup Keys
- Turnovers vs ball security: Detroit forces turnovers at the league’s top rate (17.0%), but San Antonio takes care of the ball (13.8% TOV%). If the Spurs keep live-ball turnovers down, Detroit loses one of its biggest edges.
- Free throws are the swing factor: Detroit sends opponents to the line at a high rate (32.4% opponent FT rate), while San Antonio is the most disciplined defense in the league by opponent FT rate (22.9%). Whichever side controls the whistle can control the total.
- Detroit’s offensive rebounding meets San Antonio’s box-outs: The Pistons are elite on the offensive glass (35.7% ORB%), and the Spurs are elite at preventing second chances (28.6% opponent ORB%). That clash will impact shot volume and second-chance points.
- Shot quality defense vs efficient offense: Detroit allows the lowest opponent eFG% in the league (51.5%), and San Antonio’s offense sits top-12 in eFG (55.2%). If Detroit holds that efficiency line, the Spurs may need more points at the stripe to separate.
- Rest and travel: Both teams last played March 3, so rest is even. Detroit travels from Cleveland to San Antonio, while the Spurs return home from Philadelphia.
Betting Trends
- San Antonio is 12-1 straight up in its last 13 games.
- San Antonio is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.
- San Antonio has gone Under the total in 4 of its last 5 games.
- The Under has hit in 5 straight Pistons-Spurs matchups.
- San Antonio is 5-0 straight up in its last 5 home games.
- Detroit is 8-2 straight up in its last 10 games.
- Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 road games.
- Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
- Detroit is 1-9 straight up in its last 10 road games at San Antonio.
Best Bet
Under 228.5 (-110).
Both teams are playing at a middle-of-the-pack pace (Detroit 100.4, San Antonio 101.0), and both have been defending at an elite level recently (Detroit 106.0 DRtg last 10, San Antonio 105.0 DRtg last 10). San Antonio’s defensive discipline is also a strong fit against a Detroit team that can get sloppy (15.1% team turnover rate), which helps keep scoring efficient but not necessarily high-volume. With the series also trending Under, 228.5 leaves room for a competitive, playoff-style game without needing either offense to stall completely.
Predicted Score
San Antonio 114, Detroit 110
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