Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick & Prediction – March 05, 2026
Jake Thompson
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Houston enters at 38-22 (20-7 home) and sitting near the top of the West, while Golden State is 31-30 (12-17 road) and fighting to stay out of the bottom half of the play-in mix.
Odds as of 8:17 a.m. ET on March 5, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
One quick look at the market for Warriors at Rockets.
| Item | Golden State Warriors | Houston Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Game time (ET) | 7:30 p.m. ET | |
| Arena | Toyota Center (Houston) | |
| Spread | +9.5 (-114) | -9.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | +295 | -370 |
| Total | 214.5 (O -110 / U -110) | |
Injury updates
- Warriors: Stephen Curry (out, knee/back), Jimmy Butler III (out for season, knee), Kristaps Porzingis (out, illness), Moses Moody (out, wrist), Will Richard (out, ankle), Gary Payton II (questionable, ankle).
- Rockets: Alperen Sengun (questionable, illness), Jabari Smith Jr. (questionable, ankle), Amen Thompson (questionable, ankle), Jae’Sean Tate (out, knee), Steven Adams (out for season, ankle), Fred VanVleet (out for season, ACL).
Team Snapshot
These season-to-date snapshots highlight profile, form, and betting results.
| Team | Record (Home/Road) | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 31-30 (12-17 road) | 4-6 | 26-34-1 | 35-26 | 114.2 | 112.9 | 100.7 |
| Rockets | 38-22 (20-7 home) | 7-3 | 27-33 | 26-34 | 117.0 | 111.7 | 96.8 |
Recent Form
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 4-6 in its last 10 with a 112.2 offensive rating and a 116.0 defensive rating in that span, a meaningful dip from its season baseline on both ends. The last two games were both losses at home: 114-101 vs. the Clippers (March 2) and 129-101 vs. the Lakers (Feb. 28).
From a matchup-stat standpoint, Golden State’s shot profile still leans heavily to the perimeter: 45.4 three-point attempts per game (1st) and 16.3 makes per game (1st). The problem is that it pairs that with 15.6 turnovers per game (27th), which is a tough combination as a big underdog on the road.
Houston Rockets
Houston is 7-3 in its last 10, and the underlying efficiency is strong: 115.8 offensive rating and 109.1 defensive rating across that stretch. The Rockets’ last five include wins at Washington 123-118 (March 2) and at Orlando 113-108 (Feb. 26), plus a dominant home win vs. Sacramento 128-97 (Feb. 25).
Stylistically, Houston plays slow (96.8 pace, 28th) but still grades as a top-10 offense (117.0 ORtg, 7th) with a top-10 defense (111.7 DRtg, 6th). That pace control is especially valuable at home when laying points because it reduces the game’s possession count and limits variance.
Matchup Keys
- Warriors’ 3-point volume vs. Rockets’ perimeter resistance: Golden State is 1st in 3PA (45.4) and 3PM (16.3), while Houston’s defense ranks top-five in limiting opponent 3PA (35.1) and holds opponents to 34.8% from three.
- Turnovers can decide whether the spread is live: Golden State commits 15.6 turnovers per game (27th). Houston’s offense also has a high turnover profile (15.9% TOV%, 28th), so whichever side cleans it up most gains a major edge.
- Second-chance chances tilt Houston: the Rockets rank 1st in offensive rebounding rate (39.5% ORB%). If Sengun and Smith Jr. play, that pressure on the glass is harder to absorb for a Warriors frontcourt already missing key pieces.
- Tempo points to a lower possession game: Houston plays at a bottom-five pace (96.8), while Golden State is middle of the pack (100.7). If Houston dictates terms, the total of 214.5 becomes more attainable for the under.
Betting Trends
- Warriors are 12-17 on the road this season.
- Rockets are 20-7 at home this season.
- Warriors are 26-34-1 ATS this season.
- Rockets are 27-33 ATS this season.
- Warriors are 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games.
- Rockets are 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games.
- Warriors are 35-26 to the over this season.
- Rockets are 26-34 to the over this season.
- Warriors are 6-4 to the over in their last 10; Rockets are 5-5 in their last 10.
- Last 10 head-to-head meetings: 5-5 straight up, and 7 of those 10 have stayed under the total.
Best Bet
Under 214.5 (-110).
Houston’s profile supports a lower total: 96.8 pace (28th) with a 111.7 defensive rating (6th), and the Rockets have leaned under on the season (26-34 O/U). Golden State’s offense is also trending down in recent form (112.2 ORtg last 10), and the injury situation removes primary creation, which often shows up as longer empty possessions and fewer free throws. The biggest risk to the under is Golden State’s extreme 3-point volume, but Houston’s defensive numbers against the three-point shot are strong enough to keep the under as the cleaner angle than picking a side at -9.5.
Predicted Score
Rockets 112, Warriors 98
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