Indiana Pacers vs Sacramento Kings Pick & Prediction – March 10, 2026
Jake Thompson
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Sacramento is favored at home, with Indiana taking plus money on the moneyline and +3.5 on the spread. The total is set at a lofty 236.5 despite both offenses grading poorly by efficiency on the season.
Injuries matter a lot here: both teams are missing multiple high-usage scorers and primary creators, which can swing both the spread and the total depending on who’s ultimately available.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 9:00 a.m. ET on March 10, 2026.
| Game Info | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers @ Kings (10:00 p.m. ET, Golden 1 Center) | IND +3.5 (-114) | SAC -3.5 (-106) | IND +134 | SAC -158 | O 236.5 (-110) | U 236.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
Here’s a quick side-by-side snapshot of form, market results, and efficiency.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 15-49 (10-22 home, 5-27 road) | 1-9 | 28-36-0 | 30-34 | 108.7 | 117.2 | 102.0 |
| Sacramento Kings | 15-50 (10-22 home, 5-28 road) | 3-7 | 25-40-0 | 32-32 | 109.8 | 120.0 | 100.4 |
Recent Form
Indiana Pacers
Indiana has dropped five straight and nine straight overall, and the defense has been the bigger issue lately. Over their last five games, the Pacers are 0-5 with an average score of 110.0 scored and 129.4 allowed.
- Mar 8: L at Trail Blazers 111-131
- Mar 6: L at Lakers 117-128
- Mar 4: L at Clippers 107-130
- Mar 1: L vs Grizzlies 106-125
- Feb 26: L vs Hornets 109-133
Injury note: Indiana lists Tyrese Haliburton (out for season), Pascal Siakam (out), Ivica Zubac (out), and T.J. McConnell (out). Andrew Nembhard is day-to-day and Jarace Walker is listed probable.
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento has been more competitive recently (2-3 in the last five), but the profile is still ugly on the season: 110.6 points per game scored and 121.1 allowed. Over the last five, the Kings are averaging 117.2 scored and 121.2 allowed.
- Mar 8: W vs Bulls 126-110
- Mar 5: L vs Pelicans 123-133
- Mar 3: L vs Suns 103-114
- Mar 1: L at Lakers 104-128
- Feb 26: W at Mavericks 130-121
Injury note: Sacramento lists Domantas Sabonis (out for season), Zach LaVine (out for season), and De’Andre Hunter (out for season). Keegan Murray and Dylan Cardwell are also out.
Matchup Keys
- Shot-making baseline is weak on both sides: Sacramento ranks 30th in eFG% (51.9%) and Indiana ranks 29th (52.2%), which matters with a 236.5 total.
- Defense is still the main driver of volatility: Kings DRtg is 120.0 (28th), and Pacers DRtg is 117.2 (25th). If either team’s compromised lineups miss rotations, the game can run hot quickly.
- Tempo leans fast: Indiana’s pace is 102.0 (top-10), and Sacramento is middle of the pack at 100.4. More possessions raises total variance even when efficiency is poor.
- Free throws are a real path to points: Indiana’s FT rate is 26.4% (16th), and Sacramento’s defensive FT rate allowed is elevated (27.9%). If this gets whistle-heavy, the under is at risk.
- Rebounding is not a clean advantage for either side: Indiana is poor on offensive rebounding (26.8% ORB%, 28th), and Sacramento allows offensive boards at a high rate (Opp ORB% 32.2%, 26th).
Betting Trends
- Pacers are 28-36-0 against the spread this season.
- Kings are 25-40-0 against the spread this season.
- Pacers are 30-34 to the over/under in lined games this season.
- Kings are 32-32 to the over/under in lined games this season.
- Indiana is 5-27 straight up on the road.
- Sacramento is 10-22 straight up at home.
- Indiana is 1-9 in its last 10 games and enters on a nine-game losing streak.
- Sacramento is 3-7 in its last 10 games.
- Indiana has been outscored by 8.6 points per game on the season; Sacramento has been outscored by 10.5 per game.
- Indiana is 12-41 straight up when priced as the underdog this season.
Best Bet
Under 236.5 (-110). Both teams play at a respectable pace, but the efficiency signals are rough: Indiana’s ORtg is 30th (108.7) and Sacramento’s eFG% is 30th, which is a tough combination to clear a number this high. The injury lists also remove several primary scorers and creators, increasing the chance of empty possessions and longer half-court stretches. If the game stays within single digits late, the under benefits from tighter possessions and fewer transition runouts.
Predicted Score
Kings 118, Pacers 112
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