Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks Pick – February 27, 2026
Jake Thompson
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In the Western Conference, this game sits in the middle of the play-in chase tier: the Grizzlies enter 11th and the Mavericks 12th, and both are dealing with key absences that meaningfully affect lineup quality and late-game offense.
Odds as of 9:10 a.m. ET on Feb. 27, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
Here are the current lines for Grizzlies at Mavericks.
| Game Info | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 27, 2026 (Tipoff listed: 8:30 p.m. ET) American Airlines Center (Dallas) | DAL -5.0 (-108) MEM +5.0 (-112) | DAL -194 MEM +162 | O 240.5 (-110) U 240.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
This table captures where each team stands entering Friday.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | 21-36 (9-18 road) | 3-7 | 25-31-1 | 29-28 | 113.5 | 115.2 | 101.1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 21-37 (14-17 home) | 2-8 | 26-32 | 28-30 | 111.0 | 114.3 | 101.7 |
Recent Form
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis has dropped 7 of its last 8 games, and the defense has been the bigger issue than the offense lately. In the last five, the Grizzlies allowed 133, 123, 136, 114, and 122 points, going 1-4 over that span.
The total has been flying in Memphis games recently: the Grizzlies are 9-1 to the over in their last 10, even while going just 3-7 straight up.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is 2-8 in its last 10 and comes in off a 130-121 home loss to Sacramento on Thursday, putting the Mavericks in a back-to-back spot. Defensively, Dallas has allowed 130, 114, 130, 122, and 124 points in its last five games.
Even with a fast tempo profile, the Mavericks’ full-season offensive efficiency (111.0 ORtg) has often struggled to keep pace with high totals, especially when ball-handling and creation are limited by injuries.
Matchup Keys
- Rebounding and interior size: Memphis has been outrebounded 150-106 over its past three games, and it just lost the glass 48-34 vs Golden State. Dallas has a clear path to extra possessions if its frontcourt rotation holds together.
- Injuries shape shot quality: Memphis is without Ja Morant (elbow) and Zach Edey (ankle), plus multiple rotation pieces, while Dallas lists Cooper Flagg (foot) and Daniel Gafford (ankle) as day-to-day and remains without Kyrie Irving (knee) and Dereck Lively II (foot).
- Back-to-back fatigue for Dallas: The Mavericks are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing Thursday, which can show up in 3-point legs and transition defense at this pace.
- Efficiency-based total vs the posted number: Using the teams’ ORtg values (MEM 113.5, DAL 111.0) and a blended pace around 101.4, a baseline projection lands near 227.6 points, well below 240.5.
- Prior meetings stayed low: Memphis won both matchups vs Dallas earlier this season (102-96 on Nov. 22 and 118-104 on Nov. 7), and both finished under the closing totals in those games.
Betting Trends
- Memphis is 9-18 on the road this season.
- Dallas is 14-17 at home this season.
- Memphis is 25-31-1 against the spread this season.
- Dallas is 26-32 against the spread this season.
- Memphis is 3-7 straight up over its last 10 games.
- Dallas is 2-8 straight up over its last 10 games.
- Memphis is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games.
- Dallas is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games.
- Memphis is 9-1 to the over in its last 10 games.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Memphis is 8-2 both straight up and ATS, and the under is 7-3.
Best Bet
Under 240.5 (-110)
240.5 is a premium total, and the injury lists on both sides point to more volatility in shot creation than in raw pace. Memphis games have skewed over recently, but that run has been driven by defense and opponent scoring, and Dallas’ offense ranks lower in efficiency than this number implies. With Dallas on the second night of a back-to-back and multiple key scorers/rotation pieces sidelined or questionable, the cleaner betting angle is that 240.5 leaves less margin for error than the matchup deserves.
Injury Notes (as of Friday morning)
- Grizzlies: Ja Morant (out, elbow), Zach Edey (out, ankle), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (out for season, finger), Brandon Clarke (out, calf), Santi Aldama (out, knee), Cedric Coward (out, knee), Ty Jerome (day-to-day, thigh; listed doubtful).
- Mavericks: Cooper Flagg (day-to-day, foot), Daniel Gafford (day-to-day, ankle), P.J. Washington (day-to-day, ankle), Kyrie Irving (out for season, knee), Dereck Lively II (out for season, foot).
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