Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction – March 03, 2026
Jake Thompson
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The market is priced like a mismatch: Timberwolves -14 with a 237.5 total and Minnesota a heavy moneyline favorite.
Standings context entering March 3: Minnesota is 38-23 (4th in the West), while Memphis is 23-36 (11th in the West).
Odds & Game Info
Here’s the current line snapshot for Grizzlies at Timberwolves.
| Info | Memphis Grizzlies | Minnesota Timberwolves |
|---|---|---|
| Game time (ET) / Arena | 8:10 PM ET (7:10 PM local) • Target Center (Minneapolis, MN) | |
| Spread | +14.0 (-110) | -14.0 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +560 | -800 |
| Total | Over 237.5 (-108) | Under 237.5 (-112) |
| Odds timestamp | Odds as of 10:45 AM ET on March 3, 2026. | |
Injury updates
- Timberwolves: No players listed on the injury report.
- Grizzlies: Ja Morant (elbow) out; Zach Edey (ankle) out; Brandon Clarke (calf) out; Santi Aldama (injury management) out; Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger) out for season; Ty Jerome (thigh) out; Cedric Coward (knee) out; Taj Gibson (coach decision) out.
Team Snapshot
A quick side-by-side look at form, betting results, and efficiency.
| Team | Record (Home/Road) | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 23-36 (11-17 home, 11-18 road) | 3-7 | 27-31-1 | 29-30 | 113.6 | 115.7 | 101.1 |
| Minnesota | 38-23 (20-11 home, 18-12 road) | 7-3 | 26-35 | 30-31 | 118.3 | 112.7 | 100.5 |
Recent Form
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is 3-7 over its last 10, allowing 121.0 points per game in that stretch. Even with the losing record, the offense has stayed active: 28.7 assists and 12.9 steals per game over the last 10, with 48.9% team shooting.
Their last five results:
- Mar 1: W at Pacers 125-106
- Feb 27: W at Mavericks 124-105
- Feb 25: L vs Warriors 112-133
- Feb 23: L vs Kings 114-123
- Feb 21: L at Heat 120-136
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota is 7-3 in its last 10, scoring 117.5 points per game while shooting 49.5% from the field. The defense has been good but not dominant in this span (114.8 points allowed per game), which matters with a big spread.
Their last five results:
- Mar 1: W at Nuggets 117-108
- Feb 26: W at Clippers 94-88
- Feb 24: W at Trail Blazers 124-121
- Feb 22: L vs 76ers 108-135
- Feb 20: W vs Mavericks 122-111
Matchup Keys
- 3-point math is live on both sides: Minnesota averages 14.1 made 3s per game, and Memphis allows 14.2 made 3s per game.
- Memphis can answer from deep too: the Grizzlies average 13.5 made 3s per game, while Minnesota allows 12.4 made 3s per game.
- Turnovers vs pressure: Memphis has averaged 12.9 steals per game over the last 10, a potential swing factor for a Minnesota team laying a large number.
- Game script risk for -14: Memphis has been outscored in its last 10 (121.0 allowed per game), but the offense has still produced enough to create backdoor cover chances in higher totals.
- Rest and travel are neutral: both teams last played Sunday, March 1, and neither is on a back-to-back.
Betting Trends
- Memphis is 27-31-1 ATS this season.
- Minnesota is 26-35 ATS this season.
- Memphis is 6-4 ATS over its last 10 games.
- Minnesota is 3-7 ATS over its last 10 games.
- Memphis is 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games.
- Minnesota is 5-5 to the over in its last 10 games.
- Head-to-head last 10 meetings: Minnesota is 6-4 straight up.
- Head-to-head last 10 meetings: 7-3 to the over.
- Memphis has gone over the total in 9 of its last 13 games.
- Minnesota is 6-1 straight up in its last 7 games.
Best Bet
Memphis +14.0 (-110). Minnesota is clearly the better team right now, but the spread is asking for near-perfect execution for 48 minutes, and the Timberwolves have not been a reliable cover team lately (3-7 ATS last 10). Memphis has quietly been more competitive at the window (6-4 ATS last 10), and the 237.5 total also increases the probability of a late backdoor. The Grizzlies’ injury list caps their upset path, but it does not eliminate cover equity in a fast, 3-point heavy game.
Predicted Score
Minnesota 124, Memphis 112
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