NBA Finals Game 4 Prediction & Betting Preview: Thunder vs. Pacers

Tonight’s Game 4 showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers isn’t just another playoff tilt – it’s a full-blown pressure cooker. The Thunder, favored by 6 points with the total hovering around 225.5, at Bookmaker walk into Gainbridge Fieldhouse knowing full well the stakes: win and reset the series at 2–2, or risk watching their season slip through the cracks. Oklahoma City (68–14 overall, 32–8 on the road) was the league’s best regular-season team by a mile, but they’ve now dropped two of the first three Finals games including a fourth-quarter fade in Game 3 that’s raised serious questions about their poise on the road.

Indiana (50–32, including a sterling 29–11 at home) has ridden its underdog status with poise, toughness, and sneaky depth. Their Game 3 win, a 116–107 upset, wasn’t just about Tyrese Haliburton’s near triple-double (22 pts, 11 ast, 9 reb); it was about a bench that torched OKC’s second unit 49–18, led by Bennedict Mathurin’s electric 27-point outing. Still, let’s not forget how OKC responded in Game 2 roaring back with a 123–107 blowout behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 34 points and a swarming team effort that silenced Indy’s shooters. Historically, OKC holds the upper hand in the matchup, winning 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads, and leading the all-time series 55–46.

The real tension tonight? It’s whether OKC can finally shake their 0–8 ATS curse as playoff road favorites or if the Pacers, steady and confident, can hold serve again at home. One thing’s certain: Game 4 is a swing game, and whoever owns the night might just own the Finals.

Betting Odds & Lines

Spread: Thunder –6
Moneyline: Thunder –218 | Pacers +180
Total (O/U): 225.5
Implied Win Probabilities: OKC ~68%, Indiana ~36%
Public Lean: 79% of bets on Pacers moneyline

Recent Series Recap

Game 1: Pacers stunned OKC on the road.
Game 2: Thunder bounced back in dominant fashion, winning 123–107 behind 34 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Game 3: Indiana came up big at home, winning 116–107. The Pacers’ bench outscored OKC’s reserves 49–18, with Bennedict Mathurin exploding for 27.

Thunder Betting Trends

Regular Season: 68–14 SU | 55–23–4 ATS
Playoff Road Favorites: 0–8 ATS
Post-Loss ATS Record: 11–8–1
Series Record vs Pacers: 15–5 SU in last 20, but 2–5 ATS at home
Recent Edge: After losses, Thunder rebound with +14.1 margin

OKC is a powerhouse but vulnerable on the road—especially in this postseason. They’re sharp after setbacks, and SGA (30+ ppg avg) continues to lead with purpose.

Pacers Betting Trends

Regular Season: 50–32 SU | 36–45–1 ATS
Playoff Home Record: 7–2 SU
As Underdogs: 18–11 ATS on the road
Over/Under Trends: 52–44–2 for the year, but 2 of 3 Finals games have gone under
Bench Surge: Mathurin, Nembhard, and co. have provided major lifts in key moments

Indiana’s excelled as a playoff dog, fueled by relentless pace and a deep bench. Their betting profile leans over, but playoff pressure has slowed game tempo.

Best Bets & Predictions

Pick: Thunder –6 (-110)

Despite their brutal 0–8 ATS record as road favorites, this is a classic bounce-back spot. OKC is 11–8–1 ATS after losses and typically responds with energy, control, and offensive precision. The urgency of a potential 3–1 hole, combined with elite coaching adjustments, should help them cover.

Bonus Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 1.5 steals (+100)

SGA has been an active defensive anchor all postseason. In a must-win atmosphere, expect him to ramp up on-ball pressure and create turnovers. Even money gives it nice value with around a 50% implied probability.

Final Score Prediction:

Thunder 117, Pacers 108
Expect the Thunder to reset defensively and make just enough plays late to pull away. Indiana will hang tough early, but depth and desperation tip this one back to OKC.