NBA Finals Game 5 Prediction: Thunder vs Pacers Odds, Trends & Prediction

You could almost feel the tension hanging in the air. Game 5 of the NBA Finals isn’t just another night in June it’s the kind of moment that shapes legacies, breaks betting slips, and sends fanbases into wild emotional spirals. With the series locked at two apiece, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers return to Paycom Center for what feels like the swing game of the year.

The Thunder, riding the high of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s late-game heroics in Game 4, are back in front of their raucous home crowd. But don’t count out the Pacers they’ve been defying odds, snatching wins on the road, and playing with the kind of nerve that’s hard to quantify. And for bettors? It’s a puzzle loaded with sharp angles, sneaky props, and plenty of edge.

So, what’s the real play tonight? Let’s break down the numbers, trends, and intangibles driving one of the most unpredictable Finals matchups in years.

Game Details

Matchup: Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Date & Time: Monday, June 16, 2025 – 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, OKC
TV: ABC

Latest Odds & Lines

Spread: Thunder –9.5 (–110)
Moneyline: Thunder –425 / Pacers +330
Total Points: 224.5

Implied probabilities suggest an 81% win chance for OKC on the moneyline and around 55% probability for the Thunder to cover the spread, according to consensus models.

Series Recap

Game 1 (IND 111–OKC 110): Haliburton stunned OKC with a last-second floater.
Game 2 (OKC 123–IND 107): Thunder roared back, led by SGA’s 34.
Game 3 (IND 116–OKC 107): Pacers reclaimed control behind bench dominance from Mathurin.
Game 4 (OKC 111–IND 104): Shai scored 15 in the final 4:38 to steal one in Indiana.

Team Profiles & Trends

Oklahoma City Thunder

Regular Season: NBA-best 68–14 | 35–6 at home
ATS Record: 54–26–2 (league-leading 67.5%)
Playoff Home ATS: Surprisingly just 2–6 at home in the postseason
Spread Trend: 27–14–1 ATS as favorites of 9.5 or more
Totals: Hit the over in 56% of games

Strengths: Elite offensive spacing, 3-point shooting, and fourth-quarter execution. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.7 PPG in the Finals. Role players like Alex Caruso and Jalen Williams continue to give them defensive bite and offensive flexibility.

Weakness: Vulnerable to spread busts late in home games—especially when the second unit stagnates.

Indiana Pacers

Regular Season: 50–32 | 20–20 on the road
ATS Record: 38–43–1
Playoff ATS (2025): 13–7, including 5–0 after a loss
Longshot Bets: 2–2 ATS and SU as underdogs of +9.5 or more
Public Betting: 74% of moneyline bets backing Indiana at +330

Strengths: Resilience. Tyrese Haliburton has shown serious leadership, while Pascal Siakam continues to be a low-key Finals X-factor, averaging 6.2 rebounds and 4 assists. The Pacers are leaning into their perimeter game—taking nearly 48% of shots from deep.

Weakness: Inconsistent rebounding (Myles Turner under 4.5 boards repeatedly) and streaky perimeter defense.

Key Betting Angles

Why Thunder –9.5 Might Be the Move

Elite Cover Team: 67.5% ATS overall
Fourth-Quarter Dominance: OKC’s late-game execution is punishing; they outscored Indiana 31–17 in Q4 of Game 4.
SGA’s Response: After assist droughts, he typically explodes in scoring volume his point prop is climbing.

Why Pacers +9.5 Deserves a Look

Post-Loss Bounceback: Undefeated ATS after playoff losses (5–0)
Bench Lift: Mathurin and Nembhard provide real offensive spark
Public Momentum: Over 70% of moneyline handle favors them suggesting belief in an upset or tight game

Prop Watch

SGA Scoring: Trending upwards (O/U 31.5), low assist totals due to IND’s hedging traps.
Pascal Siakam Assists: Consistently hitting over 3.5
Myles Turner Rebounds: Falling under 4.5 regularly
Caruso Impact: Over 9.5 points + rebounds could be a sneaky angle

Final Prediction: Thunder –9.5 (–110)

It’s tempting to lean into the Pacers’ momentum narrative, but this feels like a reassertion spot for OKC. Back home, with the Finals knotted up, the Thunder will likely ride the crowd, punch early, and wear Indiana down late. Unless Indiana gets a blistering night from three, they’re going to have a hard time keeping pace with OKC’s transition game and offensive spacing.

Predicted Score: Thunder 116, Pacers 102
Best Bet: Thunder –9.5
Secondary Lean: Over 224.5 if you believe in free throws and late scoring