New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Lakers Pick – March 03, 2026
Jake Thompson
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From a standings lens, the Lakers (36-24) are in the thick of the West playoff race, while the Pelicans (19-43) are playing from behind and have struggled to string together wins against top-half competition.
The total is the headline number: 242.5 is an aggressive ask for two teams that play at a roughly average pace, even with both defenses grading below average by efficiency.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 10:45 a.m. ET on March 3, 2026.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lakers -8.5 (-108) Pelicans +8.5 (-112) | Lakers -335 Pelicans +270 | Over 242.5 (-110) Under 242.5 (-110) |
Game time: 10:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. PT)
Arena: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles)
Team Snapshot
Here’s a snapshot of where both teams sit right now.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelicans | 19-43 | 6-4 | 33-28-1 | 32-30 | 113.9 | 119.2 | 100.2 |
| Lakers | 36-24 | 5-5 | 32-28 | 32-27-1 | 117.7 | 117.2 | 98.5 |
Recent Form
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 6-4 in its last 10 and comes in off a 137-117 loss to the Clippers on March 1. Before that, the Pelicans won four straight (Jazz twice, Warriors, 76ers), including a 129-118 win at Utah and a 126-111 win over Philadelphia.
The offense has been volatile game to game, and the defensive baseline remains the issue season-long (119.2 DRtg). Injury status matters a lot here because the Pelicans’ half-court scoring profile changes significantly depending on whether they have a true downhill paint presence available.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have split their last 10 (5-5), but the last two results were emphatic: a 129-101 win over Golden State on Feb. 28 and a 128-104 win over Sacramento on March 1. Those were both clean offensive performances, with L.A. scoring 128+ in consecutive games.
Even with the recent blowouts, the efficiency profile still points to a team that can score (117.7 ORtg) but does not generate many easy stops (117.2 DRtg). That combination can create backdoor cover risk when laying margin.
Matchup Keys
- Free throws vs. fouling risk: The Lakers’ free-throw rate is elite (.317), and that’s a major separator against teams that struggle to defend without sending opponents to the line.
- Shot-making environment: Both teams allow high opponent eFG% (Lakers .561, Pelicans .555). If either side is hot early from three, it can push this game toward a track meet.
- Turnovers and transition: The Pelicans are relatively careful with the ball (12.4 TOV%), and the Lakers are not a high-turnover offense either (13.3 TOV%). Fewer live-ball giveaways can suppress easy points and help an under.
- Tempo expectations: These are not extreme pace teams (Pelicans 100.2, Lakers 98.5). The total is being priced more off defensive weakness than pure possession volume.
- Rest and travel: Both teams last played March 1. The Pelicans stayed in Los Angeles after facing the Clippers, so there’s no travel penalty for the road side.
Betting Trends
- The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The Lakers are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Lakers’ last 5 home games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Lakers’ last 6 games vs. Southwest Division opponents.
- The Pelicans are 0-9 SU in their last 9 games vs. the Lakers.
- The Pelicans are 0-7 SU in their last 7 road games vs. the Lakers.
- The Lakers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as the favorite.
- Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings: Lakers are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS.
Best Bet
Under 242.5 (-110).
The pace profile does not naturally support a number this high, and both teams have recent under indicators tied to the Lakers’ home games. Even with two below-average defenses, 242.5 often requires either a major pace spike or unusually clean shooting plus extra possessions from turnovers and offensive rebounds. If the Lakers control the game as the favorite, fourth-quarter possessions can trend more half-court and clock-heavy, which helps the under even if L.A. wins comfortably.
Injury Updates
- Pelicans: Zion Williamson (ankle) listed day-to-day.
- Lakers: No injuries reported.
Predicted Score
Lakers 124, Pelicans 114
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