New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings Pick & Prediction – March 05, 2026
Ryan Rozycki
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We may receive compensation from sportsbooks or casinos featured on this page if you register or place a wager through our links. This does not affect our evaluations or rankings. We strive to provide accurate, up-to-date information, but bonus terms, rollover requirements, and availability may change. Always review the operator’s official terms and gamble responsibly.New Orleans heads to Sacramento laying a hefty price despite a 19-44 record. The Pelicans have played better basketball lately (6-4 last 10), while the Kings have slid hard (2-8 last 10) and enter short-handed again.
From a betting standpoint, the Kings’ injury list and bottom-tier efficiency are the story. Sacramento is 14-49 overall and 9-21 at home, while New Orleans is just 8-23 on the road, which matters when you’re laying multiple possessions.
Odds & Game Info
Tip-off is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. Odds as of 8:22 a.m. ET on March 5, 2026.
| Side | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | -5.5 (-110) | -210 | Over 234.5 (-112) |
| Sacramento Kings | +5.5 (-110) | +176 | Under 234.5 (-108) |
Team Snapshot
Here’s a quick stat snapshot for both teams.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelicans | 19-44 (8-23 road) | 6-4 | 33-29-1 | 32-31 | 112.5 | 117.7 | 101.3 |
| Kings | 14-49 (9-21 home) | 2-8 | 24-39 | 31-32 | 109.5 | 120.1 | 100.3 |
Recent Form
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 6-4 over its last 10 with improved two-way results: 114.5 offensive rating and 114.0 defensive rating in that span (net +0.4). That is a meaningful step up from its full-season profile (112.5 ORtg, 117.7 DRtg).
The recent game log shows both the floor and ceiling: losses at the Clippers (137-117) and at the Lakers (110-101), but wins over the Jazz twice (129-118, 115-105) plus home wins over the Warriors (113-109) and 76ers (126-111).
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento is 2-8 over its last 10, and the underlying efficiency is trending the wrong way: 106.8 offensive rating and 122.4 defensive rating in that stretch (net -15.6). That’s worse than an already-poor season baseline (109.5 ORtg, 120.1 DRtg).
The Kings’ last few results underline the volatility: a home loss to Phoenix (114-103), a loss at the Lakers (128-104), a road win at Dallas (130-121), a blowout loss at Houston (128-97), and a road win at Memphis (123-114).
Matchup Keys
- Pelicans’ second-chance edge: New Orleans is top-10 in offensive rebound rate (31.2% ORB%), and Sacramento is bottom-tier at finishing possessions (32.4% opponent ORB%).
- Kings’ shot-making concerns: Sacramento ranks last in offensive eFG% (51.9%) and has slipped to a 106.8 ORtg over the last 10 games.
- Free-throw pressure vs. a leaky defense: New Orleans’ FT rate (27.7%) matches up well against a Kings defense allowing a 27.8% opponent FT rate.
- Total points vs. pace: Both teams play around league-average tempo (Pelicans 101.3, Kings 100.3). With both offenses in the bottom tier and Sacramento missing key scorers, the total asks for near-elite efficiency.
- Rest and travel: Both teams last played Tuesday, March 3, so neither is on a back-to-back. New Orleans is on its third straight road game (LA to Sacramento), while Sacramento stays home.
Betting Trends
- Pelicans are 33-29-1 ATS overall.
- Kings are 24-39 ATS overall.
- Pelicans are 15-16 ATS on the road.
- Kings are 12-18 ATS at home.
- Pelicans are 32-31 to the over/under overall (14-17 O/U on the road).
- Kings are 31-32 to the over/under overall (14-16 O/U at home).
- Last 10 ATS: Pelicans 6-4; Kings 4-6.
- Last 10 O/U: Pelicans 5-5; Kings 5-5.
- Pelicans are 8-3 straight up as favorites; Kings are 11-41 straight up as underdogs.
- These teams last met on February 9 (New Orleans won 120-94).
Best Bet
Under 234.5 (-108).
Sacramento’s offense is already bottom-tier (109.5 ORtg for the season, 106.8 over the last 10), and the Kings are missing multiple high-usage options, which raises the bar for getting to the mid-230s. The pace is not extreme (both teams near 100 possessions), and a simple efficiency-plus-tempo baseline points closer to the low-220s than the mid-230s. New Orleans’ offensive rebounding can create extra possessions, but it also tends to slow games into half-court put-backs rather than pure transition scoring.
Injury Updates (as of the 8:00 a.m. ET NBA injury report)
- Pelicans: Zion Williamson (questionable, right ankle sprain); Trey Murphy III (questionable, neck spasm); Dejounte Murray (out, return to competition reconditioning).
- Kings: Domantas Sabonis (out, left knee meniscus repair); Zach LaVine (out, right fifth finger tendon repair); Keegan Murray (out, left ankle sprain); De’Andre Hunter (out, left eye retinal repair); Dylan Cardwell (out, left ankle sprain).
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