New Orleans Pelicans vs Phoenix Suns Pick & Prediction – March 06, 2026
Jake Thompson
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In the Western Conference context, Phoenix enters in the playoff mix (35-27), while New Orleans has fallen near the bottom of the standings (20-44) and has struggled to win on the road (9-23).
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 7:03 a.m. ET on March 6, 2026.
| Game Info | Details |
|---|---|
| Matchup | New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns |
| Date | March 6, 2026 |
| Tip time | 9:10 PM ET |
| Arena | Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix, AZ) |
Here’s the latest market.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Pelicans +6.0 (-112) Suns -6.0 (-108) | Pelicans +194 Suns -235 | Over 225.5 (-114) Under 225.5 (-106) |
Injury Updates
- Pelicans: Dejounte Murray (out, rest).
- Suns: Mark Williams (out, foot; estimated return Mar 19).
- Suns: Jordan Goodwin (out, calf; estimated return Mar 10).
- Suns: Dillon Brooks (out, hand; estimated return Mar 28).
Team Snapshot
The table below summarizes baseline performance and betting results.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelicans | 20-44 (9-23 road) | 6-4 | 35-29-0 | 33-31-0 | 112.5 | 117.7 | 101.3 |
| Suns | 35-27 (20-13 home) | 4-6 | 36-23-3 | 25-37-0 | 113.4 | 112.5 | 98.3 |
Recent Form
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans has gone 3-2 over its last five, including three straight road games in the West. Those five games averaged 120.8 points scored and 116.8 points allowed, driven by two performances of 129+ points.
The most relevant schedule note is rest: this is the second night of a back-to-back for the Pelicans after playing at Sacramento on March 5, then traveling to Phoenix.
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 2-3 over its last five, and the offense has cooled significantly: 101.0 points scored per game across that span, with 98.0 points allowed per game. Three of those five games finished at 105 points or fewer for the Suns.
Phoenix also plays on the second night of a back-to-back after hosting Chicago on March 5, but with no travel attached.
Matchup Keys
- Possession count points to a lower-scoring script: Phoenix plays slower (98.3 pace) while New Orleans prefers to run (101.3), and back-to-back legs often reduce transition volume and shot quality.
- Second-chance swing spot: Phoenix is strong on the offensive glass (33.0% OREB%), and New Orleans has struggled to finish defensive possessions (32.7% opponent OREB% allowed).
- Turnovers vs pressure: Phoenix forces turnovers at a high rate (16.7% forced TOV%), which matters against a Pelicans offense that has been middling in ball security (14.1% TOV%).
- Defense gap vs current form: Season-long, Phoenix has been the more reliable defense (112.5 DRtg vs 117.7), but the Suns’ last-10 offensive form has dipped, which can keep margins tighter than raw records suggest.
Betting Trends
- Phoenix is 36-23-3 ATS this season.
- New Orleans is 35-29-0 ATS this season.
- Phoenix games are 25-37-0 to the under this season.
- New Orleans games are 33-31-0 to the over this season.
- Phoenix is 20-13 at home.
- New Orleans is 9-23 on the road.
- Phoenix is 4-6 over its last 10 games.
- New Orleans is 6-4 over its last 10 games.
Best Bet
Under 225.5 (-106).
Phoenix has been one of the stronger under teams on the season (25-37 to the under) and is trending even more that way recently, scoring just 101.0 points per game over its last five. With both teams on the second night of a back-to-back, the most consistent path to an under is fewer clean early-clock looks and a slower, more half-court-heavy game. The Suns’ injury list also removes a key scoring wing (Brooks) and a starting center (Williams), which can reduce lineup continuity and overall offensive efficiency.
Predicted Score
Phoenix 113, New Orleans 108
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