New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Prediction: The Foul Profile Points to an Under in Game 2

New York heads to San Antonio for NBA Finals Game 2 on Friday, June 5, 2026. Tip is commonly listed at 8:40 p.m. ET, with the game schedule showing 8:30 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center. The Spurs are -6.5 with a 214.5 total, and New York is a +190 road dog.

This is a style clash that can drag the scoring into half-court mud: the Knicks play slow and win with execution, while the Spurs pair a top-tier defense with an offense that does not beat itself. New York leads the series 1-0 after a 105-95 win in Game 1.

Odds

Odds as of 8:27 a.m. ET on June 5, 2026. Lines via BetOnline.

Team Snapshot

Recent Form & Statistical Edge

New York Knicks

The Knicks’ baseline is clear: elite offense (118.7 offensive rating, 3rd) without needing to run, plus a defense that holds up (112.3 defensive rating, 7th). Their pace (97.7, 25th) is a built-in “under” ingredient, especially when they can keep games out of transition.

From a shot-making and possession lens, New York’s offense is efficient (55.7% eFG), and they’re a legitimate second-chance team (32.8% offensive rebounding rate, 7th). The catch in this matchup is how they score: their free-throw rate is low (23.8%, 25th), so if they are not getting easy points at the line, long scoring droughts become more likely.

San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio brings a more balanced profile: 118.7 offensive rating (4th), 110.4 defensive rating (3rd), and a pace that is quicker than New York but not reckless (100.7, 12th). Over the last 10, they’ve been the hotter regular-season team by efficiency, posting a 123.1 offensive rating with a 109.9 defensive rating in that stretch.

The Spurs’ defense is the separator for totals: opponents managed just a 52.2% eFG against them (3rd), and they were the league’s most disciplined team in terms of not gifting free throws (22.8% opponent FT rate, 1st). That combination makes it hard for opponents to “steal” points when the half-court offense stalls.

Matchup Keys

• Free throws (clock-stopper points) are not easy here: Knicks FT rate is 23.8% (25th), and Spurs allow the lowest opponent FT rate at 22.8% (1st).
• Shot efficiency vs shot suppression: Knicks eFG is 55.7% (9th), but Spurs held opponents to a 52.2% eFG (3rd), a direct pressure point on New York’s scoring.
• Second-chance battle: New York crashes (32.8% ORB%, 7th), but San Antonio is elite at ending possessions (27.6% opponent ORB%, 1st).
• Pace lean: New York is a slow-by-default team (97.7 pace, 25th). Even if San Antonio prefers to run more, Finals possessions often tilt toward the team that can consistently get stops and avoid live-ball chaos.
• Turnovers and transition: The Spurs protect the ball well (13.3% turnover rate, 5th), limiting the “free” Knicks points that can blow up an under.

Best Bet

Under 214.5 (-110)

Game 1 landed at 200 total points, and the underlying matchup still leans toward fewer clean scoring chances than the market implies. New York plays at a bottom-five pace, and San Antonio’s defense is built to avoid the two most efficient opponent boosters: free throws and second-chance putbacks. With the Knicks already operating at a low FT rate, this is a tough spot to expect them to consistently clear scoring gaps if San Antonio controls the glass and keeps them off the line. Unless this turns into an outlier 3-point shooting night on both sides, the “normal” game script points under.

Projected Score

Spurs 110, Knicks 102

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