New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors Pick & Prediction – March 03, 2026

New York heads to Toronto with both teams firmly in the East playoff mix, but the profiles are different: the Knicks bring a top-tier offense and slower pace, while the Raptors have leaned defense-first and have been one of the league’s stronger “under” teams.

The market has New York favored on the road, with a modest spread that reflects Toronto’s home-court edge and the Knicks’ schedule spot (they play again Wednesday).

Odds as of 10:39 AM ET on March 3, 2026.

Odds & Game Info

Tip-off is 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena (Toronto).

Here are the current lines for spread, moneyline, and total.

Team Snapshot

This table captures where each team stands overall and in the betting markets this season.

Recent Form

New York Knicks

New York is 6-4 over its last 10, but that stretch has skewed defensive and lower-scoring: the total has gone under in 4 of the Knicks’ last 5 games. In their last three games, they beat San Antonio 114-89 and Milwaukee 127-98, with the lone loss coming at Cleveland (94-109).

From a betting-results standpoint over the last 10, New York is 4-6 ATS and 4-6 to the under/over.

Toronto Raptors

Toronto is also 6-4 in its last 10, and recent totals have trended down: the total has gone under in 5 of the Raptors’ last 7 games. Their last three games: a road win at Washington (134-125), then back-to-back losses to San Antonio (107-110) and Oklahoma City (107-116).

Over the last 10, Toronto is 6-4 ATS and 4-6 to the under/over.

Matchup Keys

• Pace points to fewer possessions: Knicks (97.75) and Raptors (98.54) both play below league-average tempo, which matters with a 221.5 total.
• Toronto has lived in the under all season: Raptors are 24-36 to the over/under, so the market has consistently priced them a bit high relative to their scoring environment.
• 3-point volume edge for New York: Knicks hit 15.0 threes per game and shoot 37.8% from deep; Raptors make 11.5 threes per game and shoot 34.4%.
• Per-100 efficiency clash: Knicks offense (117.0 ORtg) vs Raptors defense (109.5 DRtg) is the central tug-of-war. If Toronto keeps New York out of transition and off the line, the spread tightens quickly.
• Schedule spot: New York is on the front end of a back-to-back (at Toronto, then home vs OKC on March 4), while Toronto’s next game is March 5 (at Minnesota).

Betting Trends

• Knicks: 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games.
• Knicks: the total has gone under in 4 of their last 5 games.
• Knicks: 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs Toronto.
• Knicks: 10-0 straight up in their last 10 games vs Toronto.
• Knicks: 7-2 straight up in their last 9 road games.
• Raptors: 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
• Raptors: the total has gone under in 5 of their last 7 games.
• Raptors: the total has gone under in 4 of their last 5 games vs the Knicks.
• Raptors: 3-7 straight up in their last 10 home games.

Best Bet

Under 221.5 (-108).

Toronto’s season-long under profile (24-36 O/U) lines up with two teams playing at below-average pace, and both clubs have been trending under recently (Knicks under in 4 of last 5; Raptors under in 5 of last 7). With New York on the front end of a back-to-back, there’s also a reasonable path to slightly tighter rotations and fewer “extra” possessions if the Knicks manage pace. If this game is played more in the halfcourt than in transition, 221.5 is a beatable number.

Predicted Score

Knicks 111, Raptors 106

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