Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls Pick & Prediction – March 03, 2026
Leo Durant
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From a standings lens, Oklahoma City (47-15) has been elite all season and is 22-8 on the road. Chicago (25-36) is sliding hard at 1-9 over its last 10, and the Bulls are just 16-17 at home.
Odds as of 10:39 a.m. ET on March 3, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
Game is at United Center in Chicago, with a scheduled 8:00 p.m. ET start (commonly listed with an 8:10 p.m. ET tip window).
Here are the current market lines for spread, moneyline, and total.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder -10.5 (-110) | Thunder -450 | Over 227.5 (-112) |
| Bulls +10.5 (-110) | Bulls +350 | Under 227.5 (-108) |
Team Snapshot
This table summarizes where each team stands entering tonight.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 47-15 (Home 25-6, Road 22-8) | 7-3 | 31-30-1 | 34-28-0 | 118.9 | 107.7 | 99.4 |
| Chicago Bulls | 25-36 (Home 16-17, Road 9-19) | 1-9 | 26-34-1 | 29-32-0 | 113.5 | 118.1 | 101.6 |
Recent Form
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC has won 5 of its last 6, including a 100-87 road win in Dallas on March 1 and a 127-121 overtime win vs Denver on February 27. Even with key absences, the Thunder profile well for sustaining a lead because they generate extra possessions, and they are producing 22.5 points per game off turnovers while committing only 12.1 turnovers per game.
Injury report: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (out, abdominal), Jalen Williams (out, hamstring), Isaiah Hartenstein (out, injury management), Ajay Mitchell (out, abdomen), Branden Carlson (out, back), Thomas Sorber (out for season, knee).
Chicago Bulls
Chicago snapped an 11-game losing streak with a 120-97 home win over Milwaukee on March 1, but the overall stretch is still rough at 1-9 in the last 10. The Bulls are allowing 120.5 points per game on the season, and their recent losses include a 131-99 home defeat to Charlotte (Feb. 24) and a 126-110 home loss to Detroit (Feb. 21).
Injury report: Anfernee Simons (out, wrist), Patrick Williams (out, quadriceps), Jalen Smith (out, calf), Jaden Ivey (out, knee), Zach Collins (out for season, toe), Noa Essengue (out for season, shoulder).
Matchup Keys
- Turnovers and easy points: Oklahoma City is scoring 22.5 points per game off turnovers, and Chicago is averaging 14.4 turnovers per game. If the Bulls’ ball security slips again, the spread can get out of reach quickly.
- Chicago’s only clean path is on the glass: The Bulls are generating 11.0 offensive rebounds per game, while OKC is at 9.5. Second-chance points matter more with multiple scorers sidelined.
- 3-point volume vs defensive quality: Chicago attempts 40.1 threes per game (37%), while OKC attempts 37.5 (36%). With shot creation limited, whichever team gets cleaner catch-and-shoot looks gains an edge on the total.
- Style clash: Chicago plays faster (101.6 pace) than OKC (99.4). If OKC controls tempo, it helps the under and makes covering as a big favorite more about defense than shot-making.
Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 47-15 overall and 22-8 on the road.
- Chicago is 25-36 overall, 16-17 at home, and 1-9 over its last 10 games.
- OKC is 31-30-1 ATS this season; Chicago is 26-34-1 ATS.
- OKC is 34-28 to the over/under this season; Chicago is 29-32.
- Oklahoma City has won 6 straight head-to-head meetings with Chicago.
- Oklahoma City is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games vs Chicago.
- Chicago is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games.
- Chicago has gone under the total in 5 of its last 6 games.
- Oklahoma City has gone over the total in 4 of its last 5 games.
Best Bet
Under 227.5 (-108)
The injury report strips away multiple primary scorers and creators on both sides, which typically shows up first in half-court efficiency and late-clock possessions. Chicago’s recent profile supports it as well, with the Bulls trending to the under in 5 of the last 6 while also missing Simons and Ivey. Oklahoma City still has the defense to keep Chicago’s efficiency down, and if the Thunder succeed in slowing pace toward their season baseline, 227.5 is a workable number. The main risk is turnovers creating fast-break points, but the personnel absences still lean this matchup toward a lower-scoring shape.
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