Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Pick & Prediction – March 09, 2026

Philadelphia heads to Cleveland on Monday night, March 9, with tip listed at 7:10 PM ET at Rocket Arena (most game listings show a 7:00 PM ET start).

Cleveland is priced as a heavy favorite at -12.5 and -670 on the moneyline, with a total of 227.5.

In the East, Cleveland enters 4th at 39-25 (21-12 home), while Philadelphia is 8th at 34-29 (17-13 road). The injury report heavily favors the Cavs given Philadelphia’s absences at the top of the rotation.

Odds & Game Info

Odds from Bookmaker as of 9:55 a.m. ET on March 9, 2026.

Game details

• Matchup: Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
• Date/Time: Monday, March 9, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET
• Arena: Rocket Arena (Cleveland, OH)

Injury report (notable)

• 76ers: Tyrese Maxey (Out, finger, est. Mar 12); Joel Embiid (Out, oblique, est. Mar 14); Paul George (Out, suspension, est. Mar 25); Johni Broome (Out, knee, est. Apr 1); VJ Edgecombe (GTD, back)
• Cavaliers: Jarrett Allen (GTD, knee); Max Strus (GTD, foot); Tyrese Proctor (GTD, quadriceps)

Team Snapshot

Here’s a pregame snapshot of form and efficiency.

Recent Form

Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia is 4-6 over its last 10 with a sharp efficiency dip: 108.6 offensive rating and 116.5 defensive rating in that span (net -7.9). The rotation context matters here because Maxey and Embiid are both out, and George remains out due to suspension.

The 76ers’ last four games: L 116-125 at Atlanta (Mar 7), W 106-102 vs Utah (Mar 4), L 91-131 vs San Antonio (Mar 3), L 98-114 at Boston (Mar 1). That includes two losses by 16+ points in their last four.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland is 6-4 over its last 10 and has defended well recently: 111.4 defensive rating over that stretch, pairing it with a 116.9 offensive rating (net +5.5). The Cavs’ season profile is still offense-forward (117.2 ORtg), but the recent defense is the cleaner signal for a big-favorite script.

Scheduling is a real factor tonight: Cleveland played Sunday (Mar 8) at home vs Boston (L 98-109), making this the second night of a back-to-back. Philadelphia last played Saturday (Mar 7) and has one day off plus short travel from Atlanta to Cleveland.

Matchup Keys

• Shot quality edge: Cleveland eFG% is 55.5% (6th), while Philadelphia’s is 52.9% (24th). If the Cavs create their usual efficient looks, the 76ers will struggle to keep pace without Maxey and Embiid.
• Turnover battle: both are top-tier at forcing mistakes (76ers forced TOV% 15.6%, Cavs 15.5%). Live-ball turnovers can quickly turn a spread into a runaway, especially for the deeper offense.
• Offensive rebounding is live for both: Cavs ORB% 31.0% (10th) vs 76ers ORB% 30.9% (11th). Extra possessions are one of the few ways an underdog can survive a scoring deficit without elite shot-making.
• Philadelphia’s weak spot on the glass: 76ers allow a 32.6% opponent ORB% (27th). If Allen plays, Cleveland’s second-chance points become an even bigger swing factor.
• Pace is not extreme (Cavs 100.9, 76ers 100.0). With Cleveland on a back-to-back and Philadelphia missing creators, this matchup can drift toward half-court possessions unless turnovers spike.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia is 32-29-2 ATS this season, but 3-7 ATS over its last 10.
• Cleveland is 27-37 ATS this season, with a 5-5 ATS mark over its last 10.
• Philadelphia is 32-31 to the over this season; Cleveland is 30-34 to the over.
• Last 10 totals form: 76ers are 6-4 O/U; Cavaliers are 5-5 O/U.
• Cleveland has won all three meetings vs Philadelphia this season: 132-121, 133-107, and 117-115.
• Those three Cavs-Sixers games averaged 241.7 total points (253, 240, 232), which is well above tonight’s 227.5.
• Philadelphia is 17-13 on the road; Cleveland is 21-12 at home.
• In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Cleveland is 7-3 straight up, and the over is 8-2.

Best Bet

Under 227.5 (-112).
Philadelphia’s last-10 offense (108.6 ORtg) is already trending down, and now it is missing Maxey and Embiid, with George also out, which reduces both shot creation and free-throw pressure in late-clock situations. Cleveland’s recent defense has been better than its season-long number (111.4 DRtg last 10), and the Cavs are on the second night of a back-to-back, which often shows up as lower pace and fewer transition possessions. The head-to-head overs are the biggest counterpoint, but those games came with a very different availability picture for Philadelphia.

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