Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies Betting Preview & Prediction – March 04, 2026
Jake Thompson
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In the West play-in race, this game sits right on the cut line. Portland is 10th, and Memphis is 11th, so the standings context is straightforward: a road win matters for Portland, and Memphis needs home results to keep pace.
Odds as of 11:28 a.m. ET on March 4, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
One quick look at the current market for Portland at Memphis.
| Game info | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trail Blazers @ Grizzlies (8:10 p.m. ET, FedExForum) | POR -9.0 (-110) | MEM +9.0 (-110) | POR -350 | MEM +280 | O 235.5 (-115) | U 235.5 (-105) |
Team Snapshot
Here’s how both teams profile entering March 4.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 29-33 (Road 13-20) | 5-5 | 28-25 | 29-26 | 110.1 | 113.5 | 100.99 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 23-37 (Home 12-16) | 3-7 | 21-28 | 24-27 | 110.5 | 112.9 | 101.60 |
Injury updates
- Portland: Deni Avdija (questionable, low back), Kris Murray (questionable, illness). Out: Damian Lillard (left Achilles), Shaedon Sharpe (left fibula stress reaction), Jayson Kent (G League two-way), Caleb Love (G League two-way), Yang Hansen (G League two-way).
- Memphis: Ja Morant (out, elbow), Santi Aldama (out, knee), Zach Edey (out, ankle), Brandon Clarke (out, calf), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (out, finger). Questionable: Ty Jerome (thigh), Cedric Coward (knee), Taj Gibson (reconditioning).
Recent Form
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland has dropped 3 of its last 4, including a 135-101 loss at Atlanta on March 1 and a 109-93 loss at Charlotte on Feb. 28. In those four games (MIN, CHI, CHA, ATL), the Blazers averaged 109.0 points scored and 120.0 points allowed, a swing that makes it tougher to justify a big road spread if the shots are not falling.
The good news for Portland is rest and schedule setup: the Blazers last played Sunday (March 1) and do not come in on a back-to-back. That matters more than usual if Avdija is limited or sits, because Portland’s half-court creation takes a hit without his minutes.
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis has played better in spots lately, winning at Dallas (124-105) on Feb. 27 and at Indiana (125-106) on March 1, but the overall trend is still negative: 3-7 in the last 10, with a 117-110 loss at Minnesota on March 3.
In the last five games (SAC, GSW, DAL, IND, MIN), Memphis averaged 117.0 points scored and 116.8 allowed. The offense has been good enough to compete, but the defensive floor gets shaky when the rotation thins, especially against teams that can extend possessions on the glass.
Matchup Keys
- Second-chance creation: Portland ranks near the top of the league in offensive rebounding volume (14.1 offensive boards per game) and second-chance scoring (18.4 points per game). That’s a clean path to points even when the Blazers’ shooting dips.
- 3-point math, but not necessarily 3-point efficiency: Portland is last in 3PT% (33.7%) but takes threes in volume (42.4 attempts per game). Memphis is better in accuracy (35.2%) with slightly lower volume (38.2 attempts). If Portland’s misses turn into offensive boards, the gap matters less.
- Rest and travel spot: Portland is on two-plus days of rest, while Memphis is playing the second night of a back-to-back after a road game at Minnesota on March 3.
- Efficiency baseline points to a lower median total than 235.5: Both offenses sit around 110 points per 100 possessions (POR 110.1, MEM 110.5), while both defenses allow roughly 113 per 100 (POR 113.5, MEM 112.9). This total is asking for above-average finishing and/or extra possessions.
- Injuries hit ball-handling and frontcourt stability: Portland’s ceiling changes if Avdija is limited, while Memphis is without Morant and multiple frontcourt pieces, which can show up late in games on both shot quality and defensive rebounding.
Betting Trends
- Portland is 28-25 ATS this season.
- Memphis is 21-28 ATS this season.
- Portland is 5-5 ATS over its last 10 games.
- Memphis is 6-4 ATS over its last 10 games.
- Portland is 29-26 on totals (Over/Under) this season.
- Memphis is 24-27 on totals (Over/Under) this season.
- Portland is 7-3 on totals over its last 10 games.
- Portland’s last 10 games have averaged 231.4 total points, below 235.5.
- Portland is 13-20 on the road; Memphis is 12-16 at home.
- The two February meetings in Portland ended 135-115 and 122-115 (250 and 237 total points).
Best Bet
Under 235.5 (-105).
Portland and Memphis both sit around 110 points per 100 possessions offensively, and this matchup is being priced like a clean 118 to 120 points per team environment. Portland’s 3-point volume is high, but the efficiency is poor (33.7%), and a potential Avdija limitation lowers the Blazers’ shot-making ceiling. Memphis is on the second night of a back-to-back and without Morant, plus multiple rotation absences can reduce late-game scoring consistency. With Portland’s last-10 total-point average sitting at 231.4, 235.5 is a playable number to the under.
Predicted Score
Portland 120, Memphis 112
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