Alexander Zverev of Germany is set to lock horns with Carlos Alcaraz of Spain in the French Open final on Sunday, June 9, 2024.
The German leads their head-to-head 5-4 (2-1 in Slams but Alcaraz leads 2-1 on clay courts). While Carlos Alcaraz is undoubtedly the superior player in terms of skill, matches are not decided on paper. Zverev has a history of frustrating his Spanish opponent in significant matches, including at Roland Garros two years ago.
Alexander Zverev's Turnaround: The German appears to have left behind the misfortunes of 2022-2023, with recent months bringing a welcome change in his fortunes. Friday was particularly favorable for him, with three significant advantages, two of which occurred before he even stepped onto the court.
Zverev comfortably defeated Norway's Casper Ruud, the runner-up from 2022 and 2023, securing a much-needed top-10 victory in a Grand Slam. Earlier in the day, the grueling five-set match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, coupled with their subpar performances, was an encouraging sign for him. Moreover, the domestic abuse allegations that had overshadowed his career for nearly two years were finally dismissed, providing a huge mental relief.
The 27-year-old is hoping his current streak of good fortune extends through Sunday, potentially culminating in the elusive Grand Slam title that has long slipped through his fingers. Despite his undeniable talent, evidenced by his success at the Masters level and winning the Olympic Gold medal in Tokyo in 2021, Zverev has encountered significant setbacks in Majors. Notably, the German failed to serve out the match against Austria's Dominic Thiem in the 2020 US Open final and was unable to maintain a two-set lead against Daniil Medvedev in this year's Australian Open semifinals.
Zverev's tendency to tighten up in crucial moments of big matches is a hurdle he must overcome to lift the title on Sunday. However, he won't be facing his contemporaries like Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Dominic Thiem, who often present a mental barrier for him.
Although Zverev still has a poor record against top-10 players in Grand Slams, he performs better against top players born in the 2000s compared to those in his own generation. He has a relatively strong record against Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. In fact, all three of his top-10 wins in Grand Slams before this week (3 out of 15) were against these two players.
Zverev's mental struggles in crucial moments are surprising given his significant successes at the top level, including victories over the Big Three, the most dominant group in tennis history. He boasts an impressive 23-11 record in tour-level championship matches and is 6-5 against top-5 players in such encounters.
Sascha Zverev, alongside Jannik Sinner, has been one of the standout players in Grand Slams this year. The German was just a set away from setting up a comfortable matchup with Sinner in the Australian Open final earlier this season, and now he has reached the final of the second Major. Furthermore, he is currently on an impressive 12-match winning streak. The positive developments off the court will only boost his morale and help him unleash his potential on the court in Sunday's big showdown.
The semifinal battle between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz was highly anticipated and delivered in terms of scores, stretching to five sets. However, perfection was lacking as both players struggled to find their best form simultaneously. Despite facing tough moments, Alcaraz leveraged his clay-court prowess to secure a 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory, once again proving his dominance in his rivalry against the Italian.
Alcaraz, currently ranked below Novak Djokovic and Sinner, is arguably the best player on clay when playing at his full potential. His impressive performance at this French Open, where he defeated four top-30 players without reaching his peak form, underscores his exceptional skills on this surface.
Since his breakthrough upset against Federico Gaio in 2018, Alcaraz has captivated tennis fans with his rapid rise. Known for his prowess on clay, many expected his first Grand Slam title to come at the French Open. This year marks his first final in Paris, following his US Open victory in 2022 and even more impressive Wimbledon triumph in 2023.
Alcaraz's previous French Open campaigns fell short of expectations, making this year's final a huge opportunity. Failing to secure the title on Sunday would be another significant missed chance, especially as this is the first final at Roland Garros without a Big Three player since 2004, and he is the clear favorite. His stellar record in title matches further solidifies his position as the frontrunner against Sascha Zverev.
Boasting a 14-4 record in main tour championship matches, with all four losses extending to the full distance, the 21-year-old Spaniard is notoriously tough to beat in big matches. His performance in high-profile events (Grand Slams and Masters) is even more remarkable, winning seven out of eight title matches, with his only defeat coming against Novak Djokovic at the Cincinnati Masters last year, despite leading by a set and a break.
We've already placed our bet on Carlos Alcaraz to win the Championship in our 2024 French Open preview. The 21-year-old Spaniard must approach the final with a well-thought-out plan and perform at his absolute best to avoid another disappointment (as it happened two years ago, in the quarterfinals).
Alexander Zverev possesses one of the few solid and robust backhands capable of neutralizing Alcaraz. It wouldn't be surprising if he ends up spoiling the Spaniard's long-awaited celebration in the French capital. Still, we expect a tight clash between the two top players.
