Leeds United and Southampton's swift return to the Premier League is at stake as they clash in Sunday's Championship playoff final at Wembley.
After goalless first-leg semi-final matches, Leeds United roared back to trounce Norwich City in the second leg. In contrast, the Saints dispatched West Bromwich Albion to move within one game of reclaiming their top-flight status.
Southampton claimed a league double over the Whites this season, including a 2-1 victory at Elland Road earlier this month.
Finding their form just in time, Daniel Farke's Leeds United had stumbled at the end of the Championship campaign, surrendering the final automatic promotion spot to Kieran McKenna's Ipswich Town. A frustrating goalless draw at Farke's old stomping ground, Carrow Road, on May 12 compounded their woes.
However, a brilliantly executed free kick from Ilia Gruev ignited a four-goal frenzy just four days later. Joel Piroe and Georginio Rutter scored in a first-half demolition at Elland Road, with Crysencio Summerville sealing a stunning second-leg performance in the final quarter of the match.
As David Wagner packed up his office at Norwich (the German was sacked following the defeat), Leeds celebrated reaching their fourth playoff final in history. Yet, superstitious Whites fans might be uneasy, as Leeds have never secured promotion through the playoffs.
Indeed, the West Yorkshire outfit suffered playoff final defeats in the 1986-87, 2005-06, and 2007-08 campaigns. No team has endured more losses in these decisive matches, with Leeds' three defeats matching the records of Bristol City, Exeter City, Lincoln City, and Shrewsbury Town.
A fourth consecutive playoff final loss would set an unwanted record for The Whites. Despite their emphatic success over Norwich being only their second victory in eight games, there are signs they may have found their stride at the perfect moment.
Still, Leeds United will be without Pascal Struijk, Darko Gyabi, and center-forward Patrick Bamford. Sam Byram also missed the Norwich match due to a hip issue, making him doubtful for the playoff final.
Bamford is in the same position and shouldn't be risked even if cleared to play, while Struijk and Gyabi, recovering from season-ending surgeries, will watch from the sidelines.
Farke will likely stick with the winning lineup, keeping faith in the highly rated Archie Gray at right-back amid interest from Bayern Munich in the talented teenager.
Winner takes all - Sunday's victor will join Leicester City and Ipswich Town in the Premier League next season. The playoff final comes 22 days after Southampton secured a 2-1 win at Elland Road, completing a league double over Leeds following a 3-1 home victory in September.
Historically, it's rare for a second-division playoff final to feature two teams relegated from the previous season's Premier League. The last two times this happened were when West Ham United defeated Blackpool in 2011-12 and 16 years prior when Leicester City beat Crystal Palace.
Leeds' emphatic second-leg victory mirrored that of their fellow 2022-23 Premier League relegation counterparts, Southampton, who managed a goalless draw at West Brom's Hawthorns before dominating the decisive match at St Mary's.
Rather than an early blitz, Will Smallbone's neat 49th-minute strike opened the scoring, followed by a brace from the ever-reliable Adam Armstrong. While Cedric Kipre's looping header in the seventh minute of added time ruined Southampton's clean sheet, it only elicited faint cheers from the West Brom supporters.
Like Leeds, Russell Martin's Southampton overcame a rocky end to the regular season, having lost three of their final four matches. Now, they prepare for their first-ever playoff final. Their only previous playoff experience was a penalty shootout loss to Derby County in 2007.
Southampton manager Martin also deals with long-term injuries, including hamstring issues for Juan Larios and Stuart Armstrong and goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu's recovery from a ruptured Achilles.
Ryan Fraser, who was left out of Scotland's provisional squad for Euro 2024, had to leave the field midway through the second half against West Brom. However, he is not expected to have a serious issue and should be in contention to start at Wembley.
Like his Leeds United counterpart, Southampton's Martin is likely to keep his starting XI for the Wembley battle, even though Fraser's replacement against West Brom, Ryan Manning, won the penalty that Armstrong converted for his second goal of the night.
Adam Armstrong, who bagged a brace against West Brom, is expected to lead the line for Southampton. The 27-year-old English forward boasts 23 goals and 13 assists in all Championship games this season and scored three goals against Leeds this term.
Leeds United: Illan Meslier - Junior Firpo, Joe Rodon, Ethan Ampadu, Archie Gray - Glen Kamara, Ilia Gruev - Crysencio Summerville, Georginio Rutter, Wilfried Gnonto - Joel Piroe. (4-2-3-1)
Southampton: Alex McCarthy - Kyle Walker-Peters, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jan Bednarek, Jack Stephens - Joe Aribo, Flynn Downes, Will Smallbone - David Brooks, Adam Armstrong, Ryan Fraser. (4-3-3)
While Southampton boasts a record of 90-minute victories over Leeds earlier in the 2023-24 season, this tightly contested battle might stretch beyond regular time. A penalty shootout could be required, and despite both sides having similar success rates from the spot, Martin's side might have a slight edge.
With both clubs reigniting their attacking prowess after lackluster finishes to the regular season, it looks likely to expect an explosive showdown at Wembley, where goals seem inevitable.
However, 10 of the last 11 Championship playoff finals have produced Under 2.5 Goals after 90 minutes. All except Fulham's 2-1 win over Brentford at an empty Wembley in 2020 (we all know why).
