Vying for second place in Group B at Euro 2024, Croatia and Italy will face off in a decisive showdown in Leipzig on Monday night.
The Azzurri need just one point to secure their spot in the last 16, while Croatia must win and hope Albania does not triumph over group leaders Spain.
This will be the third meeting between the two nations at a major tournament - Italy lost 2-1 at the 2002 World Cup and drew 1-1 at Euro 2012. In fact, the last three matches between Croatia and Italy have all ended in 1-1 draws.
Since their independence, Croatia has been unbeaten in eight matches against the Italians, winning three of them. However, a draw this time will see Italy advance as Group B runners-up.
Could this be Luka Modric's swansong - his final international game?
Croatia's Euro 2024 campaign could end as soon as we hear the final whistle of their clash against defending champions Italy on Monday night.
Despite a major setback on Wednesday afternoon-conceding a last-gasp goal to Albania and ending with just one point from two Group B games-Croatia still has a path to the knockout stages.
Zlatko Dalic's side suffered a heartbreaking 3-0 defeat to Spain in their opening match, even though they had enough scoring chances. Later on, Croatia conceded a stoppage-time equalizer in their 2-2 draw against Albania.
Yet, victory over Italy will ensure Croatia's progression, provided Albania does not upset Spain. If Croatia and Albania win, the teams' fates will be decided by goal difference. A loss or draw for Croatia and Albania to avoid defeat would eliminate the World Cup bronze medalists.
After a 3-0 defeat to Spain in their opener, Croatia managed a dramatic 2-2 draw with Albania. They scored twice in the second half before conceding a stoppage-time equalizer. Despite having more shots and attempts on target than in their entire group stage three years ago, an aging midfield and misfiring attack have hindered their progress.
Long-serving head coach Zlatko Dalic faces tough decisions. His team has conceded five goals so far and risks failing to win a major final for the first time since 2006.
With all 25 remaining players in training over the weekend and Torino forward Nikola Vlasic having departed due to injury, Croatia's coach, Zlatko Dalic, is contemplating several changes to his starting lineup.
Bruno Petkovic might be replaced up front by Ante Budimir, while Marcelo Brozovic could be swapped out for the fresh legs of 21-year-old Luka Sucic, given Brozovic's underwhelming performances so far.
Captain Luka Modric is certain to start, having made his 34th major tournament appearance against Albania - a record surpassed by only six other European outfield players. The Real Madrid midfield maestro also completed 64 passes in the final third, the second-most in a single game at Euro 2024.
Mateo Kovacic will join Modric in midfield, while Manchester City's Josko Gvardiol is expected to continue in the center-back role. Either Borna Sosa or the experienced Ivan Perisic could fill the left-back spot.
The reigning European champions missed an earlier chance to secure their last-16 spot, suffering a 1-0 defeat to Spain. Only Riccardo Calafiori's own goal separated the sides. Spain clearly dominated the match, causing concern across Italy.
With their 10-game unbeaten streak at UEFA's main event ended, Italy's hopes of becoming the second country to win back-to-back Euros hinge on a swift turnaround. Luciano Spalletti's men have much to prove after attempting their fewest shots in a European Championship game and showing defensive vulnerabilities.
The Azzurri have never lost consecutive matches at the Euros, but this final group fixture poses a significant challenge. Avoiding defeat against Croatia is crucial. A loss, coupled with an unlikely Albanian victory over already-qualified Spain, would spell a disappointing end to Italy's title defense.
Luciano Spalletti's squad has been hit hard by injuries. With Federico Dimarco's status uncertain due to a bruised calf, the versatile Darmian may need to step in.
Federico Dimarco had missed training on Saturday and trained separately from the rest of the squad on Sunday, so the Inter Milan left-back was initially expected to be ruled out for the crucial match against Croatia. However, during his press conference on Sunday, Spalletti revealed that Dimarco is expected to be fit to face Croatia, but he will be tested again on Monday morning.
Luciano Spalletti will likely make adjustments following subpar performances from Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Jorginho, and Gianluca Scamacca against Spain. With that said, Matteo Darmian, Bryan Cristante, and Genoa striker Mateo Retegui are strong candidates for inclusion, while young midfielder Nicolo Fagioli is also in the mix despite spending much of last season sidelined due to a betting ban.
Jorginho and Davide Frattesi were both subbed off at the break of their 1-0 loss to Spain, so it remains to be seen whether Spaletti will trust either of them against Croatia.
Gianluigi Donnarumma will captain the Azzurri. Inter Milan's Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella are also sure starters. Donnarumma - Euro 2020's player of the tournament - is set to make his 10th European Championship appearance at just 25 years and 120 days old, becoming the youngest goalkeeper to reach this milestone by nearly three years.
In a high-stakes contest in Eastern Germany, Croatia and Italy, separated by the Adriatic Sea, will face off, with Croatia historically holding the upper hand.
Italy's only victory over Croatia came in a friendly in April 1942, but since the group stage was introduced over four decades ago, they have lost their final group game at the Euros just once-to the Republic of Ireland in 2016, when they had already secured the top spot.
With Croatia needing to attack Italy's vulnerable backline, the Azzurri might focus on absorbing pressure and counter-attacking. Neither side boasts a prolific goal scorer right now, so a low-scoring draw seems likely again, possibly seelikelyy advance and Croatia exit the tournament.
