After contrasting group stage journeys, Spain and Georgia face off in tonight's last-16 encounter at Euro 2024 in Cologne.
While Spain cruised through as Group B winners with a perfect record, Georgia stunned the football world by defeating Portugal to secure their spot in the knockout phase. The two teams now battle for a place in the quarterfinals, where the winner of this tie will face host Germany.
Historically, Spain has dominated Georgia, winning six of their seven meetings so far, including qualifying matches for Euro 2024 with an aggregate score of 10-2 (7-1 in Tbilisi and 3-1 in Valladolid).
Spain achieved a historic feat by winning all three group games at a European Championship for the first time since 2008, marking the beginning of their global dominance. Having already secured the top spot, head coach Luis de la Fuente made 10 changes for the final group match against Albania yet still emerged victorious. Ferran Torres opened the scoring just 13 minutes in, setting the tone for a comfortable victory.
La Roja's journey to the knockout rounds marks their fifth consecutive appearance in the last 16 of a major tournament and their seventh in the previous eight attempts. As one of the favorites, they find themselves in a challenging half of the draw, potentially facing hosts Germany in the quarterfinals and possibly France or Portugal in the semi-finals.
Under De la Fuente's leadership, Spain has adopted a more direct style of play and has yet to concede a goal in this tournament. Spain last kept four consecutive clean sheets in a major competition during their triumphant Euro 2012 campaign. They must overcome Georgia's challenge before they can dream of lifting the Henri Delaunay trophy again.
After giving several squad players a chance against Albania, Luis de la Fuente is expected to field a more familiar starting XI this weekend. Midfield anchorman Rodri returns from a one-match suspension, rejoining the side and several key players.
Defender Nacho, who recently announced his departure from Real Madrid after winning 26 major trophies with the club, will be back in action. Veteran right-back Jesus Navas is also available despite a minor foot injury.
Although Dani Olmo impressed in his first start at the Euros, setting up Ferran Torres for the only goal, both are likely to be on the bench. Instead, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are expected to support captain Alvaro Morata up front. Both young stars have made significant contributions, each creating at least five chances and completing at least five dribbles during the group stage- a feat not achieved by two Spanish players since Andres Iniesta and David Silva at Euro 2016.
However, if booked, three defenders-Robin Le Normand, Dani Vivian, and Dani Carvajal -risk missing a potential quarterfinal clash against Germany.
Despite the two heavy defeats to Spain in Euro 2024 qualifying, Georgia's journey to this stage has been remarkable.
Willy Sagnol's spirited side's path to the knockout stages involved a dramatic playoff victory and a stunning group stage win over already-qualified Portugal. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's quickfire goal against Portugal inspired The Crusaders, and Georges Mikautadze's second-half penalty secured their historic victory.
Despite facing the most shots, most on-target efforts, and the highest xG of any team in the tournament, Georgia's resilience and determination have seen them defy the odds, at least for now.
Georgia's only success over Spain came in a friendly in June 2016. Still, after their shocking victory over Portugal, they might believe that reaching the quarterfinals is not beyond their reach. However, Spain will be determined to avoid complacency as they aim to progress deeper into the tournament.
Due to suspension, Willy Sagnol will be without defensive midfielder Anzor Mekvabishvili, likely keeping their midfield unchanged from the glorious victory over Cristiano Ronaldo and Co. However, two-time 'Georgian Player of the Year' Solomon Kvirkvelia might be brought into the backline with Sagnol looking for more stability against La Roja.
Thus, Sagnol is expected to deploy a 5-3-2 formation, led by Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Euro 2024's leading scorer Georges Mikautadze. The Metz striker has been directly involved in all four of Georgia's goals at Euro 2024, highlighting Mikautadze's importance to the team.
Mikautadze has joined an elite group of players by scoring in each of his country's first three matches at the European Championship, a feat previously achieved by Gareth Bale (for Wales at Euro 2016), Hristo Stoichkov (Bulgaria at Euro 1996), and Viktor Ponedelnik (USSR at Euro 1960 and 1964).
Otar Kiteishvili could also start in central midfield. The Sturm Graz midfielder has been an unused substitute in Georgia's opening two games, but he did really well against Portugal last time out.
Giorgi Mamardashvili has also been outstanding, making crucial saves in Georgia's matches against Turkey and the Czech Republic. The Valencia goalkeeper's contribution is sensational. He saved 16 of the last 17 shots he faced during the tournament. His total of 21 saves is the joint-most by any goalkeeper in the group stage, matching Latvia's Alexanders Kolinko in 2004.
After the joyful, historic night in Gelsenkirchen, Georgia faces a formidable challenge against a fluent Spain side poised for a deep run in Euro 2024. While one of Georgia's potent forwards might find the back of the net, La Roja's focus and attacking prowess will likely see them through to the quarterfinals, demonstrating their potential to claim the tournament's glory.
