Boise, Idaho will play host to a late-night Mountain West showdown this Saturday, October 11, 2025, as the Boise State Broncos welcome the New Mexico Lobos to Albertsons Stadium. Kickoff is set for 9:45 p.m. ET (7:45 p.m. local) and will air nationally on FS1. Sportsbooks have Boise State listed as a heavy favorite currently -16.5 on the spread, with an Over/Under of 59.5 points and a moneyline around -850 for the Broncos versus +570 for the Lobos. With Boise looking to rebound from a tough road loss and New Mexico aiming to prove its early-season spark wasn’t a fluke, this game carries both betting intrigue and plenty of storyline potential under the lights on the blue turf.

Recaps

Boise State: Coming off a bumpy 28–7 loss at Notre Dame sloppy game, 24 combined penalties, and a 4–0 turnover hole for Boise—but the prior three were blowout wins (EWU, at Air Force, App State). At home, they’ve taken care of business.
New Mexico: Fell 35–28 at San José State last Friday, a game that featured three Lobo interceptions and just 76 rushing yards for a team that usually needs the ground game humming. Before that, they upset UCLA in Pasadena and handled rival New Mexico State.

Matchups

Quarterbacks: Boise’s Maddux Madsen has thrown for 1,344 yards (9 TD, 5 INT); UNM’s Jack Layne is at 1,162 (7 TD, 6 INT). Madsen has been the steadier hand overall; Layne’s volatility shows up in that INT column.
Offense (team): Boise averages 479.0 yards per game (282.2 pass, 196.8 rush), 32.2 ppg, converting 48% on third downs. UNM’s offense is no pushover: 396.8 ypg, 30.0 ppg, 46% on third down. Both can sustain drives; Boise simply does it with more balance and chunk plays.
Ball security: Turnover margin is a red flag for the Lobos 7 while Boise is –1. On the road, giving Boise extra possessions is usually fatal.

Injuries

College injury news is never as crisp as the NFL, but two quick notes based on the reporting cadence this season: the Mountain West began standardized availability reports in 2025 (teams list players as “questionable” or “out” 48 hours before league games), so statuses tend to finalize Thursday. For now, New Mexico lists OG E. Harris and CB J. Sheridan as out for the season; K G. Glasgow has been questionable. Boise State has had role players like RB J. Dubar and DL B. Bol pop up as questionable in recent reports. Check again closer to kick, but nothing currently shifts the handicap in a major way.

Pick & prediction

Pick: Boise State -16.5 (up to -17) and lean Over 59.5.

Here’s the reasoning:

Sustained pressure from Boise’s offense. The Broncos don’t need explosives to pull away though they have them they move chains at a top-tier clip (nearly 48% on 3rd down) and post ~479 yards per game with balance. That plays in cold stretches and in the red zone, where favorites tend to separate.
Turnovers swing big-spread games. New Mexico’s –7 turnover margin is the kind of stat that turns a 10-point game into a 24-point result. Against SJSU, three picks told the story; giving Boise short fields in Boise rarely ends well.
Market corroboration. Books have been steady at -16.5, and predictive models around the industry peg this as an ~80–89% win probability for Boise with an implied score near 38–22 right in line with a comfortable cover if the Broncos hit their averages.
Total lean rationale. Boise can do the heavy lifting toward 60, and New Mexico’s offense (30.0 ppg, 46% on 3rd downs) is capable of contributing, especially if they chase in the second half. The best angle here is a partial stake on the Over at 59.5 rather than chasing steam upward; if you see 60.5 again, I’d be more cautious and would rather pair the spread with a Boise team total if your book offers it.

Projected score: Boise State 41, New Mexico 20. That’s Boise and Over by a whisker acknowledging that if the Lobos protect the ball (a big “if”), this can land closer to the low 60s with a late UNM touchdown pushing it comfortably past the number.