Clicky

MMA Betting Previews | Spooky Express
Spooky Express Sports Betting News & More

UFC 301

May 2, 2024


The upcoming UFC 301 event, scheduled for Saturday, May 4th at 10:00 PM ET at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, promises thrilling matchups including the return of Jose Aldo! 

Headlining the event is a flyweight title clash between reigning champion Alexandre Pantoja and 10th-ranked contender Steve Erceg, with Pantoja favored at -190. 

Additionally, the co-main event showcases a bantamweight showdown between 12th-ranked Jonathan Martinez and Hall of Fame Fighter, Jose Aldo, with Martinez carrying a -160 moneyline for his about.

Let's jump in and take a look at the Main Event and Co-Main Event from this card. 

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Betting Preview

Pantoja (27-5-0) is coming off of a unanimous decision victory in his latest fight against Brandon Royval in December of last year. This was another triumphant victory at keeping the belt.

He boasts a striking accuracy of 49 percent and successfully executes 48 percent of his takedown attempts. Notably, he averages 4.32 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.90. Defensively, he excels with a 67 percent takedown defense rate.

Erceg (12-1-0) has triumphed in his last three UFC matches, culminating in a second-round knockout of Matt Schnell in March this year, extending his impressive 11-fight winning streak.

He maintains a striking accuracy of 48 percent and a takedown accuracy of 31 percent. He displays solid offensive capabilities by recording 4.57 strikes landed and 3.64 absorbed per minute. Furthermore, he boasts an impressive 78 percent defense rate against takedowns.

Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo Betting Preview

Martinez (19-4-0) is on a six-fight win streak heading into this event. His latest successful performance was a second-round knockout over Adrian Yanez in October of last year. 

His strike precision registers at 50 percent, coupled with a takedown success rate of 42 percent. In each minute of action, he maintains a solid ratio of 4.64 strikes landed to 3.76 strikes allowed. Defensively, he boasts a formidable 69 percent takedown defense rate.

Aldo (31-8-0) re-enters the UFC arena following a challenging unanimous decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili in August 2022. Having returned from retirement, a decision made after the birth of his son in 2022, he prepares for another bout.

He maintains a 46 percent striking accuracy and a 54 percent takedown success rate. He delivers 3.57 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.74, presenting a marginal disadvantage. Notably, he exhibits outstanding takedown defense at 92 percent, a potential advantage in his upcoming fight.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

MyBookie has the betting odds available for UFC 301, and Alexandre Pantoja is gaining traction as the favored pick for the Main Card. Meanwhile, Jonathan Martinez stands as a promising contender in the Co-Main event.

Both fighters stand out in their respective battles, with Pantoja being a clear favorite in his showdown. As for Martinez, he is up against a UFC veteran and should not take him lightly.

Final Picks: Alexandre Pantoja -190, Jonathan Martinez -160