UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Betting Pick & Prediction

The next UFC Fight Night, UFC Vegas 106, will feature a welterweight showdown for the main event between eighth-ranked Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) and 12th-ranked Michael Morales (17-0-0). The action will take place on Saturday, May 17 at 7:00 PM ET for the main card at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Morales is heavily favored with odds from MyBookie at -800.

Main Event Betting Preview

Burns is a legend, no doubt, but he is 38 and is attempting to hold onto the little time he has left in the octagon. The talent always gets younger and faster, pitting them against veterans like Burns, especially in high-stakes fights like UFC Vegas 106.

He has a balanced resume, with nine of his 22 wins coming by submission. A lot of these were against previous title contenders and championship runs, making his resume impressive. However, how much longer can he fare against rising talent?

Morales is a bit overpriced here, as the market is not taking into account that this is the first legit fight of his career (championship pedigree/legendary opponent). He is dangerous with his hands and is aggressive, thus bringing the fight to many of his opponents and walking away victorious.

He currently has 12 of his 17 victories coming by knockout and is solid on the ground, but not overly dangerous in comparison to Burns. Still, his explosiveness and relentless striking in UFC Vegas 106 could prove to be too much for Burns.

Co-Main Event Betting Preview

Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1) and Paul Craig (17-9-1) will face off in a light heavyweight bout in the co-main event. Bellato will encounter his third total fight under the UFC banner, where he is currently 1-0-1.

Bellato is aggressive out the gate with his heavy striking (over six significant strikes each minute), but also takes on just as much from opponents at the same timeframe. He is more determined to expend all of his energy after about five minutes of fight time to end the battle early rather than have a technical approach.

Craig is known for his wrestling and excellent jiu jitsu, but he does not look the part in comparison to Bellato who cares more about his physique. If this becomes a striking war, Craig will need to avoid the rush and aim to take this to the ground during UFC Vegas 106.

This could be a boring start to this fight if Craig is able to dodge and deflect the onslaught by Bellato. This also sets up one of the most appealing underdog nets on the night should Craig sneak a submission on a gassed Bellato.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

MyBookie has the best UFC Vegas 106 betting odds ready to go. Both favored fighters in each main and co-main events would need to be put on a parlay to have any value on the night. However, bettors could choose prop bets that would be more appealing.

For example, take under 3.5 rounds for -130 for the main event. In the co-main, you could boldly take Craig to win or choose under 1.5 rounds for -135. Considering the excitement of UFC Vegas 106, these choices are particularly enticing.

Final Pick: Under 3.5 (-130) Rounds Main Event, Under 1.5 (-135) Rounds Co-Main Event