NFL Betting Preview: Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions – Thanksgiving Day!
Matchup at a Glance
When: Thursday, November 22, 2018, at 12:30 PM
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Point Spread: Chicago Bears -4
Betting Total: 45
Quick Pick: Chicago Bears -3 (Buy down 1 point)
Thanksgiving Day football festivities will kick on Thursday afternoon when the Chicago Bears visit the Detroit Lions on a Thanksgiving Day matchup. The Bears and Lions have faced each other 177 times in the history of the two teams with the Bears currently leading the series 98-74-5.
The two teams just played each other 2 weeks ago in Chicago with the Bears winning by the score of 34-22. Will the Bears make it back to back wins over the Lions or is the Turkey Day tradition too strong and the Lions come out victorious? Let’s dig a bit deeper and find out who we like in this game!
This game is being played at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan with the kickoff scheduled to take place at 12:30 PM ET. The last 5 times the Lions have hosted the Bears in the series, they have won all 5 games SU but just 3-2 ATS in Detroit.
WagerWeb has set the point spread for this game at Chicago Bears -4 and set the total for over/under plays at 45 points. When these two teams played two weeks ago, the Bears were favored by 7.5 points and won by 12 points. The oddsmakers have decided that home field advantage on Thanksgiving is worth 3.5 points as the Bears are road favorites by 4 points.
The Chicago Bears are in the driver’s seat in the NFC North Division. They are 7-3 on the year SU and ATS and their three losses come by a combined 11 points to the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers.
The Bears are one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL, with the 3rd ranked defense and the 16th ranked offense. The Bears can run the ball as well as any team in the NFL and QB Mitchell Trubisky has really come along strong following their loss against New England.
Trubisky has thrown just under 2500 yards this year with 20 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Trubisky has a plethora of talent on the offensive side of the ball including WR Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel at Wide Receiver and Trey Burton at Tight End.
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen will once again share duties in the backfield at the Running Back position with each having their own set of skills that sets them apart from the other.
The Detroit Lions are sitting in the basement of the NFC North Division. They are 4-6 SU but 6-4 ATS on the season. The Lions have really struggled this year in these NFC conference games, going 2-5 overall against teams from within the NFC.
The crazy part for me when I look at the Detroit Lions is they have some really strong statement wins but then they also have those games on their record where you scratch your head and ask yourself, “How did they lose that game”. The Lions have wins over all 3 teams that the Bears lost to in New England, Miami and Green Bay, and also have a win over the Carolina Panthers.
There just doesn’t seem to be any stability within the Detroit organization and Head Coach Matt Patricia’s coaching staff play calling has really come into question over the past few weeks. The Lions offense seems to be forcing the ball in bad spots and that has led to QB Matt Stafford throwing 9 interceptions, which has him ranked 10th among all NFL Qb’s in the league.
The Lions have become a one-dimensional team due to the fact that they are unable to move the ball on the ground. To make matters worse, their top Running Back Kerryon Johnson left last week’s game with a knee injury. Johnson is currently listed as questionable for Thursday’s game but the reality is he is much closer to doubtful than questionable.
Bears Dominate With Powerful Defense
The fact is we can talk about each teams offense all we want but when it comes down to it, in the last game, the Chicago defense was missing some key pieces and that spells disaster for the Lions. They will be fully healthy this time around and looking to improve on their 6 sack day against the Lions 2 weeks ago.
Additionally, the Lions had absolutely no answer for Trubisky throwing to Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. Both WR’s combined for 11 receptions for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns to lead the Bears to victory. The Lions secondary was completely shredded as Trubisky completed 23 of 30 passes for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Chicago will put heavy emphasis on the defense in this game and cause major matchup problems for the Lions. I look for Chicago to get a nice road win here against a beat up Lions team. The line for this game is set at 4 points. I’m not a fan of playing a team -4 or -8, because I like things to at least be even for those last minute covers. Therefore, I recommend you buying down 1 point to make line 3 and roll with the Chicago Bears -3 for 4 units!