The national champion LSU Tigers are probably the odds on favorite to have the most players drafted after a historic season where almost every player on their team had a career season. The Tigers draft odds are listed at 5.5 players drafted in the first round with the under at -305 and the over at +235.
How Many Locks?
I see 2 stone locks on this LSU team, which before looking any further has me a big fan of the under. Joe Burrow is obviously going to be gone very, very early in the first round and I think that K’Lavon Chaisson is seen as the second best DE by most teams and will go in the middle of the first round. After these two, this is very much a big question mark.
I have scoured the internet for 10 different mock drafts to simply get a look at what the media thinks of Patrick Queen and he is not falling out of the first round in a single mock. However, he is only picked before pick 20 in 2 of the 10 sample mock drafts that I have chosen. While Queen seems like a lock, I think that a run on the second group of receivers, interior linemen, or DBs could kick him out of the back end of the first round.
With this year's WR class, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but Jefferson is now regarded as a top 5 receiver by most due to his great and unexpected athletic testing. I expect Jefferson to be a late first rounder, but he is probably sitting around 80% to go in the first round.
Fulton is probably just north of 50/50 to go in the first round based on a combination of mocks and positional scarcity. Overall, I expect a run of one or two positions in the mid-to-late first round that causes some players to rise or fall due to position scarcity.
At the cornerback position, Fulton is seen as anywhere from 3 to 6 at the position and we have no idea when CB3 or CB6 will go. It's possible that only Okudah and Henderson go in the first round, 5 CBs go in the first round, or Fulton is the 3rd CB taken in the mid-first. I'd put Fulton at about 55% to be drafted in the first.
Delpit is an interesting and polarizing prospect because he was one of the best DBs in the country in his sophomore season and he was legit bad last year when everyone else on his team played significantly better. Will the preseason hype that helped Delpit win the Thorpe award get him drafted early? I hope not, but I cannot trust that it won't.
It's also viable that a team that wants a safety takes the upside on 2018 Grant Delpit and drafts him as safety #1. I'd put Delpit's odds of being a first rounder at 10-20%, with almost every mock having him as a early 2nd rounder.
CEH is anywhere from the 1st to 4th best RB on the board, but there isn't a consensus first-round RB in this draft. Edwards-Helaire is 5-10% to be a first rounder for me.
Cushenberry is someone that is generally seen as a clear day 2 guy, but I saw him mocked at 32 once so I didn't want to leave him out. I think his odds of being drafted in the first round is under 3%, but I guess there is a chance.
Based on my percentages given throughout, I have an average of about 4.6 LSU players being taken in the first round. If this hits, you will need all of the LSU favorites to hit as well as get one of the last three players to defy the odds and be selected.
This is probably a pass for me, as I have them being drafted at about 25%. If I had to bet this, it would easily be on the under, but it's not a lock by any means.