The Alabama Crimson Tide have become a mainstay of draft day and that will be no different this year. Currently, the books have Alabama players drafted in the first round at 5.5 with the over at even money.
What’s the Range?
When looking at school props, we should first start out with realistic possibilities as to what could happen and then simply identify the probability of each event happening. In this case, there seems to be 4 first-round locks and 2 other players that could be in the first round. Wills, Tagovailoa, Jeudy, and Ruggs are all players that are 95+% to get drafted in the first round and we are going to assume that they all will
McKinney is the next most likely Alabama player to be taken in the first round, but I do not think McKinney is the lock that the first four are. If I were grading McKinney as a prospect, I would think that he is a late-first to mid-second round prospect, meaning that I’d have him at something like 30-45% to be drafted in the first round.
However, the draft is often about needs and you will find very, very few people that don’t believe McKinney is one of the best 2 safeties in the class. Just a quick Google search of safety rankings will show you that McKinney is likely the best available.
Some people have Grant Delpit first, which is pretty crazy to me as I thought Delpit was the most overrated player in the country and he had no business being a semifinalist for the Thorpe award, nevermind winning it. I expect McKinney to be drafted ahead of Delpit barring any organizational ignorance that can occur.
I think that McKinney is 85% to be drafted in the first round because of his positional scarcity. If just one team wants a safety in the first round, odds are they take McKinney. If two or more are taken, McKinney is a lock to be one of them.
For me, this is a Trevon Diggs first round bet with a small chance that McKinney drops even if Diggs is taken in the first round. I think that Diggs will fall out of the first round from what I have seen and read recently.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper recently dropped Diggs and said that there are some games where he is a late first-rounder and others where he looks like a 3rd or 4th-round prospect. Kiper said that after talking to sources around the league, he expects Diggs to be a second-rounder.
That being said, I am worried about one team taking Diggs as part of the second CB tier late in the first round. With no workouts or real meetings, could a brother of an elite receiver that went to Alabama be seen as “safer” than other corners that are graded within the same tier?
I like the under on this bet because of the odds of the two players I discussed. I expect Diggs to hit the first round at 25-40%, but even that would mean that the combination of McKinney and Diggs is about 34% to happen. This means that the implied probability of the over is 66% while the odds on the under is -130 or 56.5%. Take the value on the under here.