The NFL Draft is just a week away and the draft position props are rolling. Today, let’s talk about Ceedee Lamb and his prop of 12.5 draft positions. The Under is -145 while the over is listed at +105, but be sure to shop around for the best price and line you can find, especially on these draft props that have such a wide range.
WR Hungry Teams
Determining which teams are in need of a receiver is not the easiest thing to do because every team needs multiple receivers on the field at all times. Even if you have 2 elite receivers, you could take a receiver early and not be crazy.
The Jaguars, Raiders, Jets, Eagles, Vikings, and Packers are the teams that I see mocked to take 1st round receivers the most, but basically any team could take a receiver, so I would not put a ton of stock into judging what specific teams are going to do. You will note that only 2 of the main WR teams are drafting before the 13th pick that the betting odds have Lamb pegged to go before.
This is a historic wide receiver class and this means that there is one of two things that will likely happen. Teams wait on receivers and fill other needs before taking a receiver because the combination of a first-round tackle and a second-round receiver is better than the inverse, even if the first-round receiver is a better prospect than the tackle.
The other option is that one or two teams take a receiver early and other teams jump out of their seat to take “their guy” before he is gone. I think that this will happen at some point because there is a lot of skepticism and differing opinions at the second tier of receiver prospects, but this should not change Lamb’s position too much in a positive direction.
I like the over at + money here on Lamb. While it is viable that he is the first receiver off the board, I think that there are teams that will like Henry Ruggs over Lamb and this could be the difference in the draft position of Lamb. I think that Lamb had some of the most impressive plays in college, but I think that some teams will still have questions about his athleticism.
It’s not that Lamb struggles with athleticism, but the other two top guys in Jeudy and Ruggs are seen as better athletes to differing degrees. While I love all three prospects, I think that the public and the line assumes that Lamb is 95%+ to be a top 2 receiver and I just don’t think this is the case.