At BetOnline there are over a thousand props for the Super Bowl. In this story we're going to be taking a look at one of them, involving the most explosive player on the field.
When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs met in Week 12, the Chiefs came out like a house afire, taking a 17-0 first quarter lead. In that first quarter explosion, Patrick Mahomes connected with Tyreek Hill for two touchdowns and 203 yards.
It was only the third time in NFL history that anyone had compiled as much as 200 yards in a single quarter.
Clearly the Bucs had a problem in dealing with the Kansas City offense. They are a blitzing team, doing so on 42% of the other team's dropbacks. But they knew they couldn't do that against Mahomes, because he can destroy that kind of approach. And with less pressure, he can burn anybody.
When all was said and done, Hill had 263 yards on twelve receptions, and he was able to get open – often WIDE-open – against whatever coverage scheme Tampa Bay had in place.
Sure, Jamel Dean is going to be playing in this game for the Bucs, and he was missing in that first meeting.But is that a real difference-maker?
Hill's effort the first time around was so staggering that it makes it difficult to come up with an over-under on his receiving yards. But this is what we're looking at currently at BetOnline:
Tyreek Hill – Receiving Yards
Over 96.5 yards -130
Under 96.5 yards +100
Kansas City has quite a bit of receiving talent. But between Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, they accounted for almost half Mahomes' targets this season.
And if I'm Andy Reid, I'm going to keep going back to the well with Hill until the Buccaneers prove they can curtail him somehow.
Hill caught 87 passes for 1276 yards (14.7-yard average). He caught 64.4% of the passes that came his way. But as the season went forward, that figure went up.
Hill is not just the guy the Chiefs go to when they are looking to throw it far down the field; he obviously has a unique ability to run with the ball once he catches it.
After the season's midway point, Mahomes went looking for Hill 4.5 more times per game than he had before, and on shorter routes. And Hill increased his yards after the catch from about 20 yards per game to more than 40.
This is the kind of thing that might work with some success against a Tampa Bay defense that is probably going to try and keep as much in front of them as they can, to avoid big plays.
The Bucs did a good job avoiding those”explosive” passing plays, by and large, in the regular season, ranking fourth-best in the league in that category.
So I guess what we're saying is that whether he is going short or long, he has the ability to make quite the impact. In this particular game, acknowledging that Tampa Bay can't shut him down, we believe he'll get his yards.
We're going OVER this yardage total.
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