On Wednesday, we made our first prediction for the Super Bowl, taking a deep dive into the spread where we felt the value was on Tampa Bay to cover the 3.5. That certainly won’t be the last prediction on this site as we’ll monitor any significant line movement as well as posting plays on game and player props leading up to the actual Super Bowl. But today we focus on the game’s posted total, breaking down the over/under of Super Bowl LV.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview: Reid Option Offense
As it stands, this total ties for the highest for any Chiefs game this season. In Week 11 against the Raiders, the O/U was also 56.5 and Kansas City went on to win 35-31, blowing way over the number. The Chiefs failed to cover the spread in the Divisional Round against the Browns with the total staying under, but in the AFC Championship, KC and the Bills combined to score 62 for the over with the Chiefs also easily covering as 3-point favorites.
The 38 points the Chiefs scored last week was the most they tallied since a Week 7 win over the Broncos when they dropped 43. All in all this year, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and company have gone 9-9 to the O/U.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview: Big Play Potential
While this total ties for the highest the Chiefs have dealt with this year, it stands alone as the largest o/u for any Bucs game. Tampa Bay has scored 92 total points in their three postseason victories en route to representing the NFC in the Super Bowl, all road wins. They’ve only amassed an average of 5.8 yards per play during the playoffs, but the big play has been a strength, and it could exploit KC next Sunday.
The Bucs posted 67 passing plays of 20 yards or more this year and the KC defense has allowed 54 such plays entering this matchup. And while the Chiefs like to blitz, TB has only allowed two sacks on 32 defensive blitzes during the postseason.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Betting Odds & Lines
As noted, the O/U for the Super Bowl is 56.5 according to MyBookie, which would make it the second-highest total of any Super Bowl ever. With nine days still to go before the big game at publish time, there is plenty of opportunity for this number to fluctuate.
Free Betting Pick
The last two Super Bowls went under the total. There have been 10 overs and 10 unders in the last 20 Super Bowls, and it's 26-26-1 overall. A coin flip if there ever was one (And you can bet on that too). Since 2015, the under is 22-9 in Tom Brady starts with a total in the 50s (16-6 since 2017). KC won the regular season meeting between these teams by three, failing to cover the 3.5. The 51 total points ended up five short of the o/u.
If you’re thinking of taking the over in this game (which we are advising here), it’s best to get it in early as handicappers are projecting the number to rise significantly in the last two days leading up to the game. Don’t wait or the value will disappear.