Similar to a draft value where you need to skip the first round, it is the first round where you are more than likely to find your biggest flops. It is hard to call players in the 4th round or later a bust or flop, it is generally in the first two and usually the first round. You will notice most of my picks are quarterbacks. Those are the most anticipated guys who are highly chosen with the greatest chance of failure.
(QB) Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)
Some of you are going to get a good laugh at my expense, but I don’t care. Don’t get me wrong, I love the talent Tua has. I am even a Miami Dolphin fan and the “Tanking for Tua” all-season long has me scared to death. I am about 99% sure health is going to be a major issue in his career and that alone is the reason I am going to call him my biggest bust of the season and maybe even the decade.
I love everything about him. I am not even going to talk about what he has done on the field, you all know that already. Broken finger, injured quad, left ankle, another ankle, followed by his hip are the main injuries he has dealt with.
His ankle issues alone are concerning, now the hip which could have, and still could be career-ending, are too risky to sign to a huge contract at this stage of the game, but you know somebody will. If it is the Dolphins I am just going to pray that I am dead wrong, but I really do not think I am. As a Dolphins fan, I should be used to this.
(QB) Jacob Eason (Washington)
I feel like Jacob when we first saw him in college everyone said he was going to be a great pro right from the start. He had the size, the build, the arm strength. He became a starter at Georgia in his second game but went down with a knee injury and lost his job to Jake Fromm, so he transferred to Washington where he threw for 3,132 yards completing 64% of his passes with 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.
Some consider him in the same class as Burrow, Tua & Herbert, they think he has what it takes to be an NFL quarterback and could be a steal in the draft. I don’t. I feel like his college career just went in the opposite direction, maybe that is worded strongly or maybe it was just all the talk of what was expected of him.
I don’t think the does well under pressure at all, he does not make good decisions when to run with the ball and takes sacks instead of throwing it away. I am not saying he cannot improve and be worked with, but I would not draft him earlier than the 6th or 7th round.
(QB) Jordan Love (Utah St)
This is the time of year where we are all trying to find the next Patrick Mahomes or that kid from a little known college who is going to turn the NFL upside down, but truth be told aren’t we all just dreaming a little bit? If that someone comes forward in this draft it may very well be someone that nobody has mentioned at all. Jordan is the sweetheart QB of this year’s draft.
Taking a look at his numbers and he had a good but not great season, He threw for 3,402 yards completing 62% of his passes, he threw 20 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions. Some of that can be blamed on a young team around him, but much was his own fault too. He was very inconsistent, he telegraphed his passes with his eyes much of the time, he completed just 32% of his deep balls throws.
You must also consider he was not facing the most fierce defenses out there in the Mountain West his entire career. Sure it would be a great story if he came into the league and tore it up but don’t expect it. He may even go in the top ten of the draft.
(RB) D’Andre Swift (Georgia)
Sometimes people assume because a running back comes from the University of Georgia that he is going to be a great running back. For the 2nd straight season, he rushed for over 1,000 yards gaining 1,218 yards with 7 touchdowns. I expect him to go in the 2nd round and someone is hoping he will be their starting RB.
He will be an efficient running back in this league. I don’t see him as overly explosive and is not going to run over people. He will find his holes and get his yards in 6-7 chunks but is not the kind of guy to take over a game like many think.
He is going to have to work hard than most backs to get the same results so stamina may come into play. I am not saying he is going to be a complete bust that is not worthy of an NFL roster, just not the star running back that many think.
(WR) Justin Jefferson (LSU)
Justin could easily go in the first round and certainly no later than the second round. While Jefferson had a magnificent season with 18 touchdowns on 111 catches and 1,540 yards, you have to wonder if he really improved talent-wise in just one season.
I am going to go on record and say he was a product of Joe Burrow and the system at LSU. I have to even question if Joe Burrow is as good as what he showed last year. I am not saying he is not talented,
I am just saying he is over-rated, there is a difference and is not worth first-round draft money. He is not a player who makes a QB better, he needs everybody around him to make him better. I would not take this guy in the first two rounds, maybe not even in the third.