Miami rolls into Orchard Park on Thursday night (Sep 18, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video) for an early AFC East temperature check that suddenly feels lopsided: the Bills are humming, the Dolphins are searching. Highmark Stadium under the lights is usually a handful, and it sets the stage for a bettable game with some clear angles.

Game Details

Date/Time: Thursday, September 18, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Teams’ Records: Bills (2-0), Dolphins (0-2)

Betting Data

Spread: Bills -12 @ Bookmaker.eu
Moneyline: Bills (-754), Dolphins (+595)
Total Points (O/U): 50
Bills ATS: Buffalo has covered the spread handily in both prior games this season.
Bills Home Trends: Have won 17 of their last 19 at home versus AFC East opponents; covered 7 of last 8 as favorites post-division games.
Dolphins Trends: Have lost 8 straight road games to AFC teams on a winning streak; failed to cover 8 of last 9 as underdogs against AFC teams.
Head-to-Head: Bills have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.

Where things stand

Buffalo (2–0) looks the part. Week 1, Josh Allen authored the early season’s craziest comeback down 15 in the final five minutes, he dragged the Bills past Baltimore 41–40. Week 2, they throttled the Jets 30–10 with a run-first script that didn’t ask Allen to be Superman. That balance plus a defense that flies has them in a groove.

Miami (0–2) is skidding. The opener was a 33–8 thud at Indy; Week 2 was a 33–27 home loss to New England that turned on special teams swings. There were bright spots Tua Tagovailoa threw for 315 yards vs. the Pats, and Tyreek Hill finally ripped a 47-yarder but the Dolphins have allowed 66 points in two games and still look disjointed up front.

Recent performance, quickly

Josh Allen, 2025 to date: 542 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT; 81.3 QBR through two weeks. He was explosive in the Ravens shootout (394 pass yds, 2 TD) and then more of a game manager vs. the Jets. Also noteworthy: he’ll wear a visor Thursday after getting his nose bloodied in Week 2 no impact to availability.
James Cook: quietly the tone-setter 176 rushing yds, 3 TD on 34 carries this season, including 132 yds and two scores at New York. If Buffalo wants to lean on the ground game again on a short week, Cook is the easy button.
Tua Tagovailoa: 429 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT through two, with that efficient 26-of-32 for 315 yds vs. New England a sign of life after a rough opener. Turnovers and pressure creep have been the issue.
Tyreek Hill: popped for 6–109 last week; still the quickest way Miami flips a game state in one snap.

Injuries

This is where the handicap tilts. Bills LB Matt Milano (pectoral) and DT Ed Oliver (ankle) are ruled out for Thursday. That’s Buffalo’s best off-ball defender and their most disruptive interior lineman. It dings the run defense and some of the simulated pressure looks Sean McDermott loves on early downs.

Miami has its own list. Jaylen Waddle popped back up with a shoulder issue on Tuesday but is expected to play; it’s still something to watch on a short week. Darren Waller (hip), who has yet to debut, is trending unlikely again. The Dolphins also listed several defenders and linemen as DNP/limited on Tuesday (Storm Duck, Ifeatu Melifonwu; Ethan Bonner, Aaron Brewer, Benito Jones, Chop Robinson among the notables). Final statuses hit Wednesday, but depth is being tested.

Matchup

1) Bills offense vs. Dolphins defense
If Wynn/ESPN’s Bills team total 31.5 looks high, consider the path: Buffalo can major in gap runs and play-action behind Cook, then let Allen pick at single-high shots when Miami rotates down to stop the bleeding. The Dolphins have yielded 33 in each game, got gashed by Indy in Week 1, and then couldn’t get off the field late vs. New England. Buffalo doesn’t need the 4th-quarter heroics from Week 1 to sniff the low-30s again.

One hedge: Milano + Oliver out softens Buffalo’s hand if this turns into a track meet they are the Bills’ two most valuable run/short-zone pieces. If Miami can generate explosives with Hill/Waddle plus a bit of De’Von Achane on the perimeter, the door to the Over does crack. Still, stylistically, Buffalo’s willingness to sit on a lead and squeeze clock (see: Jets game flow) nudges me back toward Bills + Under as the correlated angle.

2) Dolphins offense vs. Bills defense
The best version of Miami is rhythm RPOs and shot plays off motion quick, defined reads for Tua. The trouble has been negative plays: sacks and picks in Week 1, then special-teams chaos overshadowing Week 2’s gains. Without Waller and with Waddle less than 100%, Mike McDaniel probably leans heavier on Hill and the backs in the screen game to keep Buffalo’s rush honest. If Buffalo had Oliver, I’d project even more dropback discomfort; without him, there’s at least a lane to keep the sticks moving. But this is still a defense that just held the Jets to 154 yards and 11 first downs. Even down stars, McDermott’s structure travels.

3) Situational & trend notes

Allen is 7–0 on Thursdays in his career (including Thanksgiving), and the Bills carry a double-digit home win streak (12) into this one. Those aren’t auto-bets, but they speak to Buffalo’s short-week preparation and home-field edge.
The rivalry trend is also Buffalo-leaning of late: Bills have won six straight in the series. Again, trends don’t block or tackle, but they frame expectations.

Betting Pick

The market has already stretched this into “can Miami hang around?” territory. There are ways the Dolphins do a couple of Tyreek explosives, a hidden-yards win on special teams, and Buffalo missing its two defensive bell cows. But given form, venue, and Miami’s protection issues, the likelier script is Buffalo getting to 28–34 with a run-first plan that keeps Allen out of harm’s way and limits variance. That style naturally suppresses total plays, which is not nothing when you’re laying a big number.

If you can still find -12, that’s the pivot point I’m comfortable with; the difference between 11.5 and 13 matters if this finishes in the 10–13 zone. I’d also rather pair Bills -12 with Under 50 than isolate the total Buffalo’s defense minus Milano/Oliver introduces some volatility, but the Bills can still dictate pace and field position, and Miami’s offense hasn’t shown four-quarter consistency. For alt angles, Bills team total Over 31.5 is viable if you disagree on game tempo.

Best Bet: Bills -12 (would pass if it climbs above 13). Lean: Under 50.
Projected score: Bills 31, Dolphins 17.