Cardinals vs. Giants Prediction: Arizona Has a Slight Edge Against Injury-Hit New York

The Giants have the better record, but Arizona brings the more settled offense into Sunday’s matchup at MetLife Stadium.

New York has lost starting quarterback Jaxson Dart and pass rusher Brian Burns to major knee injuries in consecutive weeks. Jameis Winston remains the starting quarterback, even after the Giants acquired J.J. McCarthy from Minnesota, and an offense without a touchdown in its last two games needs to find answers quickly.

Arizona has problems of its own, particularly on defense. Still, Jacoby Brissett’s connection with Trey McBride and Michael Wilson gives the Cardinals a reasonable path to winning as a small road favorite.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, with CBS carrying the game. Arizona enters 1-2, while New York is 2-1 and unbeaten at home under first-year coach John Harbaugh.

Cardinals vs. Giants Odds

The following DraftKings prices were published September 29 and checked September 30:

Other published listings have Arizona favored by one to two points. Check the number and price together before placing a bet.

Some market trackers show New York opening as a 2.5-point favorite before Arizona took over as the favorite. That shift coincides with the Giants’ personnel losses, although different sources record different opening numbers.

At the prices above, Arizona’s moneyline is worth considering. The additional cost over the spread buys protection against a one-point Cardinals victory.

Brissett Gives Arizona the More Reliable Passing Game

Brissett has completed 70.1% of his passes for 652 yards, four touchdowns and one interception.

Those numbers reflect an offense built around shorter completions. Arizona is averaging only 5.6 yards per pass attempt, so the completion percentage should not be mistaken for an explosive passing attack.

The Cardinals do have dependable targets. McBride leads the team with 26 catches for 211 yards and two touchdowns. Wilson has 18 receptions for 163 yards and a score.

Both were heavily involved in last week’s 36-30 loss at San Francisco. Wilson caught 11 passes on 17 targets, while McBride added nine receptions. Brissett repeatedly found ways to move the offense as Arizona tried to close the deficit.

That approach could work against a Giants defense adjusting to life without Burns. New York has recorded only one sack through three games, and losing its most accomplished edge rusher puts more responsibility on Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux.

If Brissett has time to make his first read and deliver underneath, Arizona can sustain drives without needing a succession of deep completions.

Jeremiyah Love Could Be the Difference

Arizona’s running game has been inconsistent, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Rookie Jeremiyah Love offered a better performance against San Francisco, rushing for 90 yards on 21 attempts.

He also caught five passes for 19 yards and a touchdown, giving the Cardinals another way to involve him when rushing lanes were unavailable.

New York has allowed 4.7 yards per carry. That creates an opportunity for Arizona to establish enough of a ground game to avoid asking Brissett to throw on nearly every possession.

James Conner remains unavailable after beginning the season on injured reserve, leaving Love and Tyler Allgeier to handle the backfield work.

The Cardinals do not need Love to dominate. They need productive early-down carries that keep the full playbook available. Against a defense missing Burns, that would make it harder for New York to manufacture pressure.

Can Winston Take Advantage of Arizona’s Defense?

This is the biggest reason to hesitate before backing the Cardinals.

Arizona has allowed 6.4 yards per play and surrendered 67 points over its last two games. San Francisco finished with 437 yards Sunday and repeatedly answered when the Cardinals threatened to come back.

The secondary is also missing cornerback Will Johnson, who is on injured reserve with a neck injury.

Winston therefore gets a more inviting matchup than New York’s recent offensive results might suggest. He has completed just 51% of his passes across his appearances, with no touchdowns and one interception, but his first start came in difficult conditions against Tennessee.

The Giants ran 33 times and attempted 22 passes in that wet, windy 12-7 victory. Winston finished with 118 passing yards, while kicker Dominic Zvada supplied all the scoring.

That was a limited offensive performance, but it was also a game in which New York chose to lean on its running backs and defense. A better passing day is possible against Arizona.

Malik Nabers, Darnell Mooney and Isaiah Likely give Winston options. The Giants need to turn those options into touchdowns rather than another afternoon of field-goal attempts.

The McCarthy Trade Does Not Change Sunday’s Starter

Harbaugh has named Winston the starter. McCarthy’s arrival adds another quarterback to the roster, but learning a new offense during game week is a significant hurdle.

There is no confirmed basis for predicting a quick quarterback change Sunday. The handicap should begin with Winston running the offense.

Cam Skattebo is likely to remain central to that plan. He carried 20 times for 60 yards against Tennessee, while Najee Harris added 52 yards on nine attempts.

Arizona allows 4.6 yards per rush. If the Giants can run efficiently, they can reduce the number of difficult passing downs Winston faces and keep Brissett’s offense on the sideline.

That is New York’s strongest route to an upset.

Injuries and Weather Still Matter

Beyond Dart and Burns, the Giants are missing cornerback Paulson Adebo, who is on injured reserve. Updated reports on Deonte Banks, Tyler Nubin and the offensive line deserve attention before kickoff.

Arizona safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson’s availability also needs checking. Previous-week injury labels should not be treated as final designations for this game.

The early East Rutherford forecast calls for cool conditions and possible showers. Rain timing and wind gusts will matter more than the daily precipitation percentage.

The Giants will also honor the 40th anniversary of their 1986 championship team at halftime. It adds to the occasion, but the game still comes down to whether New York can generate offense and replace Burns’ impact.

Cardinals vs. Giants Pick and Prediction

Both teams are 2-1 against the spread, and both have played two unders in three games. Those small samples offer little separation.

Arizona gets the slight edge because its passing game has more dependable production. McBride and Wilson give Brissett established targets, while Love’s increased involvement offers a chance to improve the balance of the offense.

The Giants can keep this close. Their running backs have a favorable opportunity, and Arizona’s defense has not played well enough to justify laying a large number on the road.

That makes Cardinals moneyline at -115 my preference. The spread at -1.5 is reasonable, but paying a little more to cover any Arizona victory makes sense in a matchup with little between the teams.

I also lean under 44.5. Both offenses average just 4.4 yards per play, and New York is still adjusting without Dart. The defensive injuries keep it a secondary opinion, and I would pass if the total falls to 43.5.

Best bet: Cardinals moneyline -115, playable to -120
Predicted score: Cardinals 23, Giants 20
Total lean: Under 44.5; pass at 43.5