Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots Odds, Picks & Prediction

The Carolina Panthers will face the New England Patriots on Sunday, September 28, 2025, at 1:00 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium, with both teams entering the game at 1-2 and the Patriots favored by 5.5 points. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they aim to avoid a 1-3 start that could derail their playoff ambitions.

Game Details

Date/Time: Sunday, September 28, 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
TV Channel: FOX

Top Betting Angles

Carolina is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings against the Patriots.
The underdogs have covered in 10 of the Panthers’ last 12 games, while New England has failed to cover in eight straight home games in September.
Patriots have failed to cover the spread in eight consecutive home games in September.
New England has lost each of their last eight games before a divisional matchup.
The total is set relatively low at 43 to 43.5, and the Panthers are 13-5 to the Over in their last 18 games.
Panthers have lost the first quarter in four of their last six games against losing-record teams.
Panthers have lost the first half in eight straight road games.
Patriots have lost the first quarter often as home favorites against NFC opponents so consider quarter and half lines if available.

What changed since last week

Carolina’s defense woke up. The Panthers blanked Atlanta 30–0, scoring on defense, hitting a 57-yard field goal, and generally suffocating Michael Penix Jr. (who was benched). Bryce Young didn’t need to do much (121 passing yards, a rushing TD), but that’s kind of the point Dave Canales’ team played clean, complementary football and took the air out of the stadium.
New England’s offense was good… until it wasn’t. Drake Maye went 28/37 for 268 yards and two TDs to Hunter Henry vs. Pittsburgh, but the Patriots coughed it up five times (two by Rhamondre Stevenson, one INT and one fumble by Maye, plus another RB fumble). When you turn it over like that, you lose 21–14 at home.
Injuries tilt the matchup chessboard. The Patriots may get 2024 All-Pro CB Christian Gonzalez back from a hamstring he’s been limited in practice and “ramping up” for a possible season debut. On the other side, the Panthers’ WR room is banged up: first-rounder Tetairoa McMillan (calf) and Xavier Legette (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday; Hunter Renfrow also sat. Keep an eye on final designations, but as of mid-week it’s a tangible ding to Carolina’s passing game.

Team Form

Panthers (1–2)

Team leaders through three: Bryce Young 603 pass yds, 4 TD, 3 INT (60.5%); Chuba Hubbard 168 rush yds; rookie Tetairoa McMillan 216 rec yds (15.4 YPR). Team offense sits at 831 total yards (272 rush / 603 pass). These are modest figures, and the staff has leaned into a ball-control, field-position approach while the line heals.
Qualitatively, the defense has been “bend but don’t break,” spiking in takeaways last week. (Two INTs vs. ATL, including a Chau Smith-Wade pick-six.)

Patriots (1–2)

Drake Maye is off to a quietly efficient start: 72.6% completions, 785 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT; Hunter Henry leads with 165 receiving yards; Rhamondre Stevenson is tied for the team rushing lead (87) but ball security is a hot topic after two fumbles vs. PIT. New England has 1,038 total yards (301 rush / 785 pass) — a top-half yardage profile for a 1–2 team.
Defensive front has generally held up; entering Week 3 they led the league in run-stop metrics, but short fields from turnovers crushed them vs. Pittsburgh.

Matchup

1) Carolina WR health vs. NE corners
If McMillan and/or Legette sit or are limited, Carolina’s explosive element shrinks. If Gonzalez returns, New England suddenly has a legit top corner to pair with Carlton Davis, which tilts the outside matchups. Even if Gonzalez is on a pitch count, his presence helps Mike Vrabel mix coverages and press more confidently. Lean: Patriots.

2) Ball security & hidden yardage
Last week’s five giveaways were an outlier, but New England’s margin for error is thin. The Panthers have lived off short fields (and even defensive scores) when they win Lean: Panthers, with the caveat that Stevenson’s fumbles are a real trend going back to 2024.

3) Third-down & red-zone execution
Carolina’s offense has been choppy on money downs (16/41 on third down; middling red-zone punch outside of short fields). New England’s ability to feature Henry in the seams and use Diggs as a space-creating piece even when he’s not racking yards showed up again in spurts. Lean: Patriots to finish enough drives at home.

4) Special teams swing
Rookie Panthers K Ryan Fitzgerald booted a 57-yarder last week; that matters in a low-40s total because it extends scoring range on stalled drives. But kicking conditions in Foxborough can be dicey late September with wind off the bay a small tilt toward the home operation that knows the stadium. Slight Lean: Even, with a tiny situational edge to NE. (Carolina’s 57-yard make: proof of leg.)

The pick

Panthers +5.5

Projected score: Patriots 23, Panthers 20