Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Betting Preview & Prediction (Dec 7, 2025)

The NFC North race basically runs through Lambeau Field on Sunday. Chicago comes in as the surprising No. 1 seed in the NFC, Green Bay is right on their heels, and oddsmakers still like the Packers – by almost a full touchdown – in the cold. Let’s break down whether that number is too rich if you’re looking to bet this rivalry game.

Matchup Snapshot

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025 – 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Records: Bears 9–3 (5–2 away), Packers 8–3–1 (4–2 home)
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Packers ~69% win probability
Weather: Mid–teens Fahrenheit at kickoff with single-digit wind chills; cold, but not dangerously windy — classic Lambeau December football.

Chicago has won nine of its last ten and five straight, including a statement road win over the defending champion Eagles in Week 13. Green Bay, meanwhile, has ripped off three straight, capped by a strong Thanksgiving performance in Detroit where Jordan Love played one of his best games of the season.

Current Odds (as of Dec. 6, 2025)

Spread: Packers -6.5 / Bears +6.5
Moneyline: Packers around -295, Bears around +265
Total: 44.5 (opened 46.5 and has been bet down)

Even though the Over has taken a large share of public action, the total has moved downward — usually a sign that sharper bettors prefer the Under, especially with cold weather expected.

Team Form & Key Stats

Chicago Bears

Record: 9–3, 1st in NFC North; five-game winning streak
Scoring: 26.1 points per game
Offense: 4,491 total yards with 1,846 of those on the ground
Defense: Playing its best football of the year, highlighted by a dominant showing against Philadelphia

Caleb Williams (QB)

2,722 passing yards, 17 TD, 5 INT, QBR 54.9
Williams isn’t being forced into hero-ball; the Bears win with balance, scheme, and timely throws.

Skill Players:

DJ Moore: 38 catches, 502 yards, 3 TD
D’Andre Swift & Kyle Monangai: Both coming off 100-yard rushing games, giving Chicago a dangerous 1–2 punch

Green Bay Packers

Record: 8–3–1, second in NFC North; three-game win streak
Scoring: 24.5 points per game; defense allowing just 18.8
Offense: 4,087 total yards; efficient but less run-heavy than Chicago

Jordan Love (QB)

2,794 passing yards, 19 TD, 3 INT, 67% completions, QBR 73.0
Love looks completely in command of Matt LaFleur’s system and enters this matchup playing the best football of his career.

Injury Picture

Bears:

WR Rome Odunze – out
CB Tyrique Stevenson – out
LB Ruben Hyppolite II – out
RB Roschon Johnson – IR

Packers:

WR Jayden Reed – questionable
DE Lukas Van Ness – out
CB Nate Hobbs – questionable
S Javon Bullard – questionable

Betting Trends to Know

Bears are 8–2 ATS in their last 10.
Chicago is 5–1 straight-up and ATS as an underdog this season.
Packers are 2–6 ATS as a favorite since Week 3.
Both teams enter on multi-game win streaks.
Bears games have leaned Under recently thanks to a stronger defense and run-heavy offense.
Despite heavy public money on the Over, the total has dropped — a classic indicator of sharp action on the Under.
Chicago covered both meetings vs Green Bay last season and won at Lambeau in the 2024 finale.

Matchup Breakdown

When the Bears Have the Ball

Chicago wants to run the ball and control pace, and the stats back up that identity. Their 1,846 rushing yards reflect a physical approach that pairs well with cold-weather football. Against a Packers front missing multiple key defenders, the Bears’ ground game should be able to produce consistent chunks.

The Packers’ best chance is to force Caleb Williams into long-yardage downs and stack the box early. But Williams has been comfortable operating a controlled, play-action-heavy script. He doesn’t need to throw it 40+ times for Chicago to stay competitive in fact, the Bears are better when he doesn’t.

When the Packers Have the Ball

Jordan Love has evolved into a top-tier quarterback this season, mixing efficiency with explosive plays. He’s been particularly good off play-action and attacking the middle of the field — areas Chicago must defend without starting CB Tyrique Stevenson.

If Jayden Reed returns, Green Bay gains a dynamic underneath option that allows Watson and Doubs to stretch the field vertically. Cold weather makes deep passing a little trickier, so LaFleur may lean more heavily on short game and running concepts than usual.

Chicago’s defense has tightened up significantly in recent weeks. Their ability to generate pressure without blitzing should keep this from turning into a Green Bay runaway.

Weather & Total Angle

Cold weather helps defenses more than offenses not dramatically, but noticeably. Hands stiffen, traction fades, and special-teams operations can get dicey. Chicago already prefers a grinding tempo, and Green Bay may be nudged into a more conservative script as well.

Given:

Falling total (46.5 → 44.5)
Run-heavy Bears approach
Both defenses trending upward
Forecast in the teens with biting wind chill

The Under has strong support.

Betting Verdict & Pick

Against the Spread

The number feels inflated considering:

Chicago’s 8–2 ATS run
Excellent underdog performance this season
A run game that travels reliably
A defense that has held up even against elite opponents

Green Bay deserves to be favored, but -6.5 essentially implies a near-touchdown edge over a 9–3 team that just beat Philadelphia on the road. That feels steep.

Pick: Bears +6.5

Total

Given the weather, line movement, and matchup tendencies:

Pick: Under 44.5

Predicted Score

Packers 23, Bears 20

Green Bay edges out a tight, physical rivalry game, but Chicago keeps it within the number. Expect a late-possession situation where both teams have a path to win — exactly the kind of script you want if you’re taking the points.