Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders Odds, Picks & Prediction

The Chicago Bears face the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, September 28, 2025, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Kickoff is at 4:25 PM ET, with the game broadcast nationally on CBS. Both teams enter this Week 4 matchup with 1-2 records and a pressing need to build momentum as the season progresses.

Game Overview and Context

Matchup: Chicago Bears (1-2) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Time/Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
TV Coverage: CBS

Betting Trends

Both teams are 1-2 against the spread (ATS) so far in 2025.
Two of the Bears’ first three games have gone over the total; Raiders have seen two of three go under.
Bears are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, but are 5-1 straight-up in their last 6 versus AFC opponents.
Raiders home games in 2025 have averaged just 29 total points, but they just surrendered 41 on the road in Week 3.

Where the Bears have the edge

Quarterback + Play-caller momentum. Williams finally looked like the guy Chicago drafted first overall: 19/28, 298 yards, four TDs, and a season-high efficiency clip in that Cowboys win. That was also Ben Johnson’s first victory as head coach, and his passing concepts (including that viral flea-flicker) clearly put Williams in rhythm. If Chicago carries even 70% of that sequencing into Vegas, the ceiling’s higher than the first two weeks suggested.

Reliable early-season pillars. Through three games, the Bears’ leaders are Caleb Williams (715 pass yds), D’Andre Swift (149 rush yds) and Rome Odunze (227 rec yds). Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds tops both tackles (29) and interceptions (2), which tells you where the defense’s heartbeat is right now. Team-wide, Chicago sits at 1,041 offensive yards on 5.6 yards/play, while opponents have produced 1,161 yards at 6.4 ypp — that’s the good-news/bad-news split: the offense is trending up, but the defense has been leaky.

A gettable Raiders run front. Vegas has allowed 342 rushing yards at 4.5 yards/carry across three games, and has been on the field for 185 defensive snaps already. Chicago’s run game hasn’t been explosive yet (4.2 ypc), but the tape says you can dent the Raiders inside and with misdirection a Johnson specialty.

Where the Raiders can punch back

Geno can sling it… when he’s clean. Geno Smith is the Raiders’ statistical engine so far (831 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT). Jakobi Meyers leads the team with 228 receiving yards, and Tre Tucker is coming off a breakout (8-145-3) that forces DCs to respect the vertical speed from both sides. If Chicago’s pass rush doesn’t win early, Geno has shown he’ll take the layups and the seams.

But protection is the swing factor. Smith has already taken 12 sacks; Las Vegas ranks far better throwing than running (217 rushing yards total; 3.1 ypc). If those protection issues persist especially the interior communication Chicago can get to the spot with simulated pressure and let Edmunds/2-high shells squeeze windows. This is where the game tilts.

Allegiant and urgency. The Raiders beat New England in Foxborough in Week 1 (20–13) and now get the Bears at home with a chance to reset a two-game skid. Pete Carroll’s staff has been vocal about expecting Chicago’s “best” and that often comes with an aggressive script to protect the O-line. Expect Vegas to answer with tempo and shot plays to Tucker/Meyers early.

Betting view

Side: With the Raiders’ protection issues, one-dimensional run game, and a Bears offense finding answers nudges me toward Chicago. I’d play Bears +1 or better.

Total: The market at 47.5 feels about right. Chicago’s defense has yielded chunk plays (opponents at 6.4 ypp), and the Bears will be aggressive again. Vegas can score, especially if Tucker’s rise holds, but Mayer’s status is a small drag in the red zone. My lean is Over 47.5 , not a hammer think 50–52 combined if game script stays neutral.

Best bets & final score

Best bet: Bears moneyline or Bears +1.
Secondary lean: Over 47.5/48 (small).

Prediction: Bears 27, Raiders 23. Williams strings enough efficient drives together, Swift does just enough on early downs, and Chicago’s defense creates two negative plays on long-yardage snaps to blunt a late Raiders rally.